It's been said before that Stormont is addicted to process. In recent years it appears a predictable cycle has emerged that sees a period of stable government rocked by a crisis that then requires intensive talks to resolve it. The flag protests triggered the unsuccessful Haass talks, the welfare reform impasse led to the Stormont House Agreement at the close of 2014, then less than a year later the murder of Kevin McGuigan and the near collapse of the institutions necessitated Fresh Start.
The theme running through all of the above processes has been legacy, that catch-all term for dealing with the toxic residue of the Troubles. It was meant to be resolved conclusively with Stormont House in December 2014 but two-and-a-half years on, implementation remains as elusive as ever with a circular blame game leaving observers' heads spinning.
The stumbling blocks differ depending on who you talk to. It could be the British government's national security veto or the Irish government's need to acknowledge its historic role to a greater degree. Then there's concern about disclosure, access to justice and the money to pay for tackling legacy – the £150m committed by the British government in Stormont House now appears inadequate. Nationalists appear happy to see the legacy components implemented in a piecemeal manner as each hurdle is overcome. The DUP and the British government insist it's all or nothing. Ultimately, neither side will get their way but striking a compromise has so far proved problematic.
Meanwhile, there are other issues that need addressed. Some of the discussions involve reforming the way Stormont works and addressing commitments from previous agreements, which like legacy, have yet to be implemented. An Irish language act is the most glaring of these and despite being barely mentioned for a decade, has now assumed major significance. No doubt there have also been face-to-face talks between the DUP and Sinn Féin about how they overcome the impasse that arose from the Renewable Heat Incentive scandal. Republicans say they won't accept Arlene Foster as first minister, while the DUP won't let Sinn Féin call the shots. It's a recipe for a stand-off but if devolution is to be restored by Monday afternoon's 4 pm deadline then something has to give.
If the desire is there, agreement will be found, no doubt with a generous helping of fudge. If not, we're looking at fresh elections, most likely in June. After that, it'll be back round the talks table.
