Ulster SFC semi-final: Armagh v Down (Saturday, 5.15pm, Clones – live on GAAGO)
PAIRC Esler, the Athletic Grounds, St Tiernach’s Park – it doesn’t matter when or where Armagh and Down wage war, the journey home will always be particularly painful for one set of supporters.
Navigating the road out of Clones can test the temper at the best of times, especially when all the traffic is headed out the same road. Sitting in the heaving rain, staring so long at the number plate in front that it ends up known by heart, last year was a tough one for those from Mourne County.
Buoyed by a bounce under new boss Conor Laverty, and the novelty factor after so many dark days before, the weather was no deterrent as they travelled in their thousands. Twelve months on - despite conditions due to be balmy in comparison - the same enthusiasm, or expectation, isn’t there.
The scoreline that day has contributed to that inertia on one side of the county border, as Armagh ran in four goals on the way to a comfortable semi-final victory. But so too have the performances in Down’s last two games - the Division Three final defeat to Westmeath before edging past Antrim in Newry.
It has been stunted, error-strewn and difficult to watch. Promotion was earned with relative ease but the price paid for another year spent in the third tier is a struggle to raise themselves above that level.
After all, Down have been favourites in every competitive game played since facing Cavan in the Tailteann Cup quarter-final last June. The absence of proper, solid tests against better opposition has undoubtedly hindered their development.
Perhaps the same argument could be made of Armagh having coasted through Division Two before posting a strangely off-colour showing in their League final defeat to Donegal. Yet any concerns were answered emphatically with a powerhouse first half display in seeing off Fermanagh the last day.
Physically, and athletically, they can be awesome. Will McGeeney’s men adopt the same aggressive, front footed approach on Saturday? It would be a surprise if they don’t.
Because here’s the thing, coming into last year’s semi-final, Armagh were wary of Down. Not fearful, but concerned - about their momentum, about their pace, about their goal threat.
Assuming Kieran McGeeney and co have followed Down’s progress in recent weeks, they are sure to smell blood.
Long, looping balls under Niall Kane’s bar led to two of Armagh’s four goals as the Mournemen were swept aside, with Andrew Murnin rising above the then Down number and Ryan McEvoy to fist home the first, and Ciaran Mackin doing the same for the third.
Shane McPartlan drove right through the middle for the second goal, evading the pitiful challenges of six Down players before lashing into the net. Defensively, Down left an awful lot to be desired.
They have improved significantly in the time between, although the manner of Westmeath’s goal in the League final – Jonathan Lynam rising unchallenged above John O’Hare – should give cause for concern in the face of a potential Armagh aerial attack.
Keeping out goals is absolutely critical to their hopes of causing an upset. However, they need to be much better at the other end of the field too.
Armagh have a clear physical advantage but – even in the absence of Odhran Murdock - the Down pair of Conor Poland Paddy Branagan pretty much broke even around the middle last year. Every one of Kane’s kick-outs found its target.
Yet in the first half, the Mournemen kicked four wides and dropped three into the hands of goalkeeper Ethan Rafferty. That lack of confidence and composure before the posts continues to be a problem.
Could Murdock be stationed at full-forward in a bid to unsettle the Armagh back line? There is no doubt they need to come up with something different, something that poses different kinds of questions.
But Down have deployed this tactic before - against Cavan and Meath last year, and early on against Westmeath - to limited effect.
Armagh have developed a defensive stinginess that is the envy of most, and unless they tighten up on previous profligacy, Down stand no chance. That is why the Orchardmen will travel to Clones in confidence, and rightly so.
The inclusion of Rafferty in the matchday squad for the first time this year presents a last-gasp headache Laverty could have done without, as he now has to factor in the possibility of the forward-turned-midfielder-turned sweeper keeper starting in place of Blaine Hughes.
The strength of the Armagh bench, the potential game-changers they possess in Oisin O’Neill, Aidan Nugent, Ross McQuillan and Jason Duffy, is another illustration of why Armagh are such big favourites.
Down supporters can draw some comfort from the fact their best performance under Laverty – the defeat of Cavan at Kingspan Breffni – came after lacklustre showings against Meath and Longford, and perhaps the Mournemen have had their eyes on this one for a while.
Only victory will guarantee their place in the All-Ireland series, and so much needs to go right for that to happen. Armagh are bigger, stronger and have been operating at a higher level for much longer – they should seal a second consecutive Ulster final appearance on the trot, but it may not be as straightforward as some might think.
