I HAVE a friend who is even more obsessed with music than I am, real music that is, rather than the stuff that clogs up too many airwaves these days.
Music typically recorded in the 1970s, 1980s and on the rare occasion in the decades since.
Each week during lockdown he has thrown an artists name on social media and asked a group of us to select a Top 10 by that band or singer.
Last week it was Bruce Springsteen and I knew right away, as a lifelong fan, this is going to be hard. Very hard, like selecting a favoured child, even the concept is hard to grasp. But I gave it a go.
I distracted myself by delving into reports and forecasts of how the economy will come out of Covid-19, locally, nationally and internationally. Whatever way this is question is looked at, there is no good answer. That a recession follows the pandemic seems logical, and the recession will be global.
However the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) has predicted that the UK economy will suffer a higher downturn and loss of GDP than any other nation. The reasons are varied and include the mismanagement of the crisis by a hapless UK government which meant that the lockdown was more strict and lasted longer than anywhere else.
Measured against other nations, the UK finally achieves Boris Johnson’s coveted ‘world leader’ position; the UK is predicted to fall by 11.5 per cent during 2020, more than France, Italy, Spain, Germany or the US which is expected to take a hit of 7.3 per cent.
The times are tough, and they’re just getting tougher
Surveys and studies closer to home do not offer much cheer either. The Ulster Bank’s economic report for May showed all parts of the economy - construction, retail, services and manufacturing - are all in a serious downturn. Our statistics around economic output were among the worst in the UK.
The Ulster University Economic Policy Centre also forecasts that the economy in Northern Ireland will contract by 12.7 per cent in 2020. That would mean a fall of £5.4 billion in economic output in just one year. Unemployment is expected to plateau at 12 per cent - that's a figure which is really unimaginable in the modern economic era.
Lately there ain’t been much work, on account of the economy
These statistics, reports and forecasts combine to present a pessimistic context in which our own Executive must set about mapping a road towards economic recovery. It is a huge, multi faceted task and one which is daunting, challenging and potentially overwhelming.
Against that backdrop, Economy Minister Diane Dodds has published the ‘Rebuilding a Stronger Economy’ report. That document also sets out the scale of the challenge we face. The report conceded that we face a significant reduction in the amount of foreign direct investment into Northern Ireland, something which we have excelled at for more than a decade now.
How important it is that we retain our status as a valued inward investment location. To the credit of the minister, given that her party was a major cheerleader for Brexit, the report also acknowledges the potentially disastrous implications of a No Deal Brexit. I know, I know, but let's not go there.
Diane Dodds has come under criticism for the make up of the re established Economic Advisory Panel. With respect to those who are on the group, most of the names could have been guessed at before their publication.
It is particularly disappointing that there is no representative from the SME sector, when it is smaller businesses that will sustain the economy here in the short term and build a bridge to economic recovery in the longer term. But we can be assured that under the leadership of Ellvena Graham, the group do their best to map out a route toward economic recovery.
I'm working on a dream, though it can feel so far away, I’m working on a dream.
Its a positive that we at least have a recovery plan in place, and especially one which recognises the need to have sustainability at the heart of our recovery, and which also acknowledges the existence and importance of disparity in access to quality high speed broadband across the region.
The plan points out our existing strengths and advantages in life sciences and cyber security and emphasises the role that our people will play in attracting investment.
It might be the right plan, it might need adjusted and tweaked, but we will get nowhere without a roadmap so in the midst of all the pressing issues facing the minister and her department, we should acknowledge the importance of having a Northern Ireland-focussed roadmap to recovery.
We are in a place we have never been before and we will not be again, but we can come out of this convergence of crises if we plan properly, genuinely work together and take advantage of the unique status accidentally conferred on this region through a Brexit we never wanted.
Every difficulty situation has a solution. Even the one I presented at the beginning of this article. In the end I went for Thunder Road as Bruce Springsteen’s greatest song:
With a chance to make it good somehow Hey, what else can we do now?
Brendan Mulgrew is managing partner at MW Advocate (www.mwadvocate.com). Follow him on Twitter at @brendanbelfast
