ECONOMIC output in the north fell by the sharpest rate in seven years amid continued Brexit and global uncertainty according to a new business survey.
The latest Ulster Bank purchasing managers index (PMI) indicated that the private sector moved into deeper contraction during September.
Produced by HIS Markit, the survey is considered one of the most reliable indicators for the performance of the Northern Ireland economy.
It’s based on the responses of 200 companies across the manufacturing, construction, retail and services sectors.
The results of the latest survey, released today, show output, new orders and employment all fell at sharper rates during September, while business sentiment dropped to a new record low.
Businesses surveyed mainly linked falling activity to Brexit uncertainty, with customers reportedly reluctant to commit to new projects at present.
Lower output was recorded across all four monitored sectors, led by construction.
Ulster Bank’s chief economist Richard Ramsey said deteriorating business conditions continued to be a key theme across the both the north, UK and further afield during September.
He said the pace of decline in output, new orders, employment, exports and expectations all accelerated during the month relative to August.
“Notably, export orders at local firms fell to a 97-month low, which underscores that this is not just a Northern Ireland problem, and that global demand is weakening.”
It’s the seventh consecutive month that the PMI has revealed a fall in private sector output and the fifth month running that all sectors have shown decline.
It painted a much more marked deterioration of private sector activity in the north than other regions of the UK.
“Perhaps most notably, construction saw the fastest rates of decline in output, and new orders in the sector are now at an 82-month low,” said Mr Ramsey.
“The manufacturing sector also reported its fastest pace of job losses in over 10 years. But the weakness is broad-based, and the largest sector, services, had a particularly difficult month in September with output and orders hitting 81-month lows.”
The economist added: “Looking ahead, Northern Ireland is the only UK region where firms expect output to be lower in 12-months’ time.
“This reflects the lack of confidence in the local private sector at present resulting from a range of factors, not least ongoing Brexit uncertainty. However, whilst a week is a long time in politics, a year is a very long time in economics, and much can change quickly on both fronts.”
