Opinion

Deaglán de Bréadún: Republic on the verge of a parliamentary revolution

The latest opinion poll in the Republic puts support for Sinn Féin at 36 per cent, ahead of a combined 35 per cent for Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael.  Pictured is SF leader Mary Lou McDonald.  Picture: Brian Lawless/PA Wire.
The latest opinion poll in the Republic puts support for Sinn Féin at 36 per cent, ahead of a combined 35 per cent for Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael. Pictured is SF leader Mary Lou McDonald. Picture: Brian Lawless/PA Wire. The latest opinion poll in the Republic puts support for Sinn Féin at 36 per cent, ahead of a combined 35 per cent for Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael. Pictured is SF leader Mary Lou McDonald. Picture: Brian Lawless/PA Wire.

DESPITE having sat on the throne for 70 years, Queen Elizabeth isn’t the world’s longest-serving monarch – at least not yet.

She would need another wee stretch to overtake Louis XIV who was head of state in France from 1643 to 1715. But she is well ahead of Louis XVI who reigned for 18 years until the job was abolished and he was guillotined during the French Revolution. Then there was Tsar Nicholas II of Russia, a relative of the British royals, who was forced out after 23 years during the 1917 Revolution and later ruthlessly executed with his family and entourage.

There’s no sign of a revolution in Britain at the moment although given the rather chaotic way things have been going at Number 10 Downing Street – at least on the social side – one might expect a change of government, or at least the way government operates, in the not-too-distant future.

There’s no monarchy in the 26-county part of this island: the Republic of Ireland, formerly the Irish Free State. But two political parties have been running the place since its foundation, Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael (incorporating its predecessor Cumann na nGaedheal).

Now, if the opinion poll figures hold up, we are on the verge of what might be described as a parliamentary revolution. The lead story in last Sunday’s issue of the Business Post was headed: “Support for Sinn Féin soars to new record level in latest Red C poll”. Asked about their voting intentions in the next general election, 36 per cent of respondents replied “Sinn Féin”, with Fine Gael at 20 points and Fianna Fáil on 15 per cent. On its own, that would be significant news but it comes after a Behaviour & Attitudes poll published in the Sunday Times two weeks previously where SF also received 36 per cent, with Fianna Fáil in second place this time at 24 points and Fine Gael on 19 per cent.

Three general elections ago in 2011, Fine Gael got 36.1 per cent of first-preference votes and won 76 out of 166 seats in Dáil Éireann. In the previous 2007 contest, Fianna Fáil secured 41.6 per cent of first preferences and 77 seats.

If Sinn Féin got 36 per cent in the next general election, which must be held by February 20, 2025, at the latest, it could have enough seats to form a government with smaller parties and/or individuals and no need to make eyes at FF or FG. And if the growth in support for the party continues at its present pace, SF might be able to rule the roost on its own.

What would that mean for the two communities in the north? It would certainly increase pressure for referendums, north and south, on the issue of Irish unity. The decision in Northern Ireland formally rests with the secretary of state but that individual would no doubt be receiving advice from the prime minister of the day, who in turn would be coming under pressure from a Dublin government led by Mary Lou McDonald.

Whilst a Sinn Féin administration in the south, along with First Minister Michelle O’Neill and her party colleagues in the north, would doubtless be very keen on holding two border polls, they would also need to be confident that a majority of public opinion was on their side in each jurisdiction. In that context, SF has been urging current Taoiseach Micheál Martin to establish a "Citizens’ Assembly to examine constitutional change on the island of Ireland”.

As Sinn Féin chairperson and South Antrim MLA Declan Kearney has put it: “Questions about the future of the health service; the cost implications of unity; an all-island health service; future governance arrangements; taxation; pensions and public services; and the place of unionists within the new Ireland, are among many important issues that a Citizens’ Assembly could discuss in an informed environment.”

Such a body would be “representative of all sectors of society on the island of Ireland, with the aim of finding common ground”. Citizens’ Assemblies have previously been established in the Republic to consider such issues as abortion, climate change and gender equality. Presentations from experts and interested groups are given, a report is produced in due course and the government of the day is required to respond to its recommendations. Given that a poll on this regard can only be held every seven years in the north, the whole issue would need careful advance consideration.

Email: Ddebre1@aol.com; Twitter: @DdeBreadun