Opinion

Alex Kane: Unless the rules change we will continue to have instability

Alex Kane

Alex Kane

Alex Kane is an Irish News columnist and political commentator and a former director of communications for the Ulster Unionist Party.

As the largest unionist party, the DUP will stick to its position on not rebooting the executive until it has been reassured on the protocol. Pictured is DUP leader Jeffrey Donaldson Photo: James Manning/PA Wire.
As the largest unionist party, the DUP will stick to its position on not rebooting the executive until it has been reassured on the protocol. Pictured is DUP leader Jeffrey Donaldson Photo: James Manning/PA Wire. As the largest unionist party, the DUP will stick to its position on not rebooting the executive until it has been reassured on the protocol. Pictured is DUP leader Jeffrey Donaldson Photo: James Manning/PA Wire.

Most of us have heard of Sisyphus (although I still have to look up the spelling any time I want to use his name).

Thanks to his being punished by Hades and forced for eternity to push an enchanted boulder up a hill, only to see it to roll away just as he reaches the top, we now refer to an utterly pointless, deadly boring and interminable activity as Sisyphean. Which brings me neatly to the assembly.

I don’t know what the plural of Sisyphus is—where’s Brian Feeney when you need him—but I sometimes feel that the electorate in Northern Ireland is like a million or so Sisyphuses (fair enough, I just made up that plural) rolling the parties up the hill to Stormont, just to see them roll down again. Jeffrey Donaldson even managed to roll himself down before he signed in as an MLA and was last seen careering back to Westminster.

I think I mentioned in a previous column that Megan—my eldest—had her first vote in the 2017 assembly election. It didn’t meet for three years and then collapsed when the DUP withdrew the first minister in February. She voted again last Thursday, although it took a while to persuade her that things would be different this time. They are. It probably won’t meet for six months and there’s a good chance (you’ll still get decent odds from your bookmaker of choice) there’ll be yet another election by the spring of next year.

That would be quite embarrassing actually. A whole heap of local, national and international bigwigs are due to descend on Belfast next April for the 25th anniversary jamboree of the Good Friday Agreement. They might just as well cut to the chase and celebrate what is likely to be the twenty-fifth anniversary of the institutions being ground to a standstill for one reason or another. And the Titian-haired girl heckling them as the speeches start is likely to be my Megan (I’ll encourage her to round up her mates who also voted for the first time in 2017) chanting: “One, three, five, seven, do something to end Alex’s pessimism.” Okay, that’s not very catchy, but you get my point.

Here's the latest problem. Every single one of the 37 unionist MLAs in the assembly has concerns about the protocol. There may not be consensus on how the protocol should be resolved (some want it binned, while others could probably live with a soft landing), but the fact remains that 362,394 voters endorsed four unionist party manifestos which included promises to address and resolve protocol issues.

As the largest unionist party, the DUP will stick to its position on not rebooting the executive until it has been reassured on the protocol. Jim Allister may not have any MLAs on the seats around him, but he now has almost 66,000 votes as his mandate. The ‘marching season’ isn’t far away and there’ll probably be yet more rallies: so, Donaldson will tread with great caution.

And while Sinn Féin and others will complain about one party holding the rest to ransom it’s instructive to revisit Martin McGuinness’ resignation letter in January 2017: “I have sought to maximise the potential of the institutions for forward progress in a society emerging from bitter conflict. But the refusal of Arlene Foster to recognise the public anger or to exhibit any humility in the context of the RHI scandal is indicative of a deep-seated arrogance which is inflicting enormous damage on the executive, the assembly and the entire body politic.”

His letter collapsed the executive and the assembly. It was a unilateral action by SF. There were already concerns within its base about the dynamics of the relationship with Arlene Foster (nowhere as businesslike as with Paisley and Robinson), a growing sense that this one wasn’t going to work as well. Another growing sense, too, that perhaps the fallout from Brexit might be an ‘England’s misfortune is Ireland’s opportunity’ moment. Anyway, whatever the specific reason - and others were touched on in the letter—McGuinness’ final political act was to pull down the executive and assembly.

That’s what happens when you gift two polar political opposites a unilateral veto on progress and stability. They will use it as and when it suits them and then blame the other for creating the circumstances and provocations which forced them to do what they did. But since the executive and assembly depend on mutual consent for survival it requires the unionist and nationalist blocs to provide that consent. As Mark Twain would say, “Them’s the rules and you both agreed them. It’s your mess.”

And, just for the sake of argument, let’s say Boris Johnson did dump the protocol and the DUP agreed to return to the executive. Does anyone actually believe SF would smile, nod and respond: “Oh, that’s great news, let’s get cracking.” Of course not. They would accuse the British of interference and playing the Orange card: and the executive would remain unbooted.

But until the process for establishing the executive is changed we remain where we are. Them’s the rules.