Reflecting on the past few days - I feel as if everything has changed and nothing has changed.
But first of all, let’s get the niceties out of the way.
The recent assembly elections had two clear winners - Sinn Féin and the Alliance Party.
Sinn Féin’s success was remarkable. The Alliance victory was even sweeter. It’s been a long hike for the Alliance Party. Naomi Long is a superb communicator.
There was a deadly simplicity to both campaigns and the electors responded.
Sinn Féin’s messaging was clear - the first minister’s post was within their sights. They recognised the well trodden equality path could be milked again to propel nationalist voters to the polls.
There may have been no crocodiles in this election but there was a huge opportunity opened up by the DUP’s intransigence.
Assembly Election Results Hub
Posters of Michelle O’Neill were placed in every nook and cranny of the north. Online messaging was similar.
Of course, the party was abetted by the very public refusals of the DUP, before and during the election, to confirm if they would serve under a Sinn Féin first minister.
It used to be said the late Ian Paisley was the best recruiting sergeant the IRA ever had. DUP hubris and downright stubbornness gifted the Paisley favour to their political opponents.
SF president Mary Lou McDonald was emphatic - it was unacceptable of the DUP leadership to refuse to accept the result of an election if Sinn Féin were victorious.
In a year which saw many commemorations of the civil rights marches, her message resonated with many. Certainly it resonated in my family discussions.
It seemed as if (despite decades of power sharing) political unionism still couldn’t grasp the concept of full equality for Catholics in Northern Ireland.
Having spurned the offer of the late Martin McGuinness to have an office of joint first ministers, it’s now a case ‘to the victors the spoils’ of a coveted but totally honorific moniker of first minister.
The only saving grace for the DUP was that despite the substantial lead Sinn Féin had in percentage share of the vote, the margin of difference in seats remains only two. This provides a fig leaf for the DUP leadership to cover their folly of over-emphasising on the NI Protocol.
At face value, the SDLP campaign seemed slick. Colum Eastwood was the best performer in the Leader’s debates.
Claims the SDLP was competing for more seats than defending were not credible. It’s doubtful if the SDLP has the resources to provide either accurate intelligence gathering or operate effective vote management strategies. The loss of Nichola Mallon and Dolores Kelly is devastating. There isn’t much time or point in navel gazing. The SDLP needs to lick its wounds (without recriminations), get up and get on, most likely as an opposition party.
Jim Allister cut a forlorn figure at the weekend. He was another election loser. Having been the tail who wagged the DUP dog for the best part of a year, he remains on the outside - the Cassandra of politics.
Doug Beattie can breathe a sigh of relief. He and his colleagues had a bad election but survived. Beattie needs to continue providing positive leadership for unionism and avoid changing course as the UUP tend to do after electoral setbacks.
Whilst pro-protocol parties have a clear majority in Stormont, some vexing issues remain. The UK government needs to listen to that majority whilst reassuring unionists.
That said, if the DUP try to thwart the establishment of the executive, then the rules governing Stormont need changed back to pre the St Andrews Agreement.
As for demands for a border poll, despite winning the Holy Grail of the top post, nationalist percentage share of the vote is sliding. Remarkably when John Hume fought his last EU election in 1999 the combined nationalist share of the vote stood at over 45 per cent - today the combined total is 38 per cent. Those figures should give everyone food for thought.
