Opinion

Alex Kane: Cummings' tweets suggests a prime minister who is capable of anything

Alex Kane

Alex Kane

Alex Kane is an Irish News columnist and political commentator and a former director of communications for the Ulster Unionist Party.

Former adviser Dominic Cummings tweeted that Boris Johnson (pictured) always intended to ‘ditch’ the NI Protocol. Photo : Peter Byrne/PA Wire.
Former adviser Dominic Cummings tweeted that Boris Johnson (pictured) always intended to ‘ditch’ the NI Protocol. Photo : Peter Byrne/PA Wire. Former adviser Dominic Cummings tweeted that Boris Johnson (pictured) always intended to ‘ditch’ the NI Protocol. Photo : Peter Byrne/PA Wire.

It wouldn’t be the same in Northern Ireland if we didn’t have some sort of talks process which trundles on towards a Christmas deadline.

The latest one (although we could actually have two if the assembly collapses at the end of the month and there’s an early election) will be between the UK and EU as they try to agree a form of protocol (and there will be a protocol of some sort) which calms unionist nerves.

What are the chances of success? That probably depends on the answer to two questions: is it in the interests of unionism to have a functioning assembly; is it in the joint interests of the EU and British government to get the protocol problem out of their in-trays and off their desks?

The answer to both is, I think, yes. I know some people believe Boris Johnson plans to use the protocol as a stick to keep beating the EU with, but I’m not persuaded there is much benefit to him from that strategy. Getting ‘Brexit done’ got him into Downing Street and delivered a handsome majority in December 2019, but I don’t see how leaving it undone, or picking it apart, helps him. The prospect of new negotiations may give Jeffrey Donaldson enough cover not to walk from the assembly in two weeks, although it doesn’t mean Johnson will settle on a deal two months later that does the DUP, or unionism generally, any favours.

As Sammy Wilson noted on Wednesday morning, the deal breaker for the DUP is this: “Are we fully part of the United Kingdom or are we half in the union and half out of the United Kingdom when it comes to law-making and the adjudication on those laws.” The problem is the DUP don’t make the call on that: it’s up to Johnson. And if he doesn’t deliver and the DUP has to walk from the executive (it would have no other option in those circumstances) then Donaldson finds himself in the worst of all worlds: betrayed (again) by Johnson; left without an assembly; and looking particularly weak in an election.

My gut instinct is Johnson doesn’t want drawn-out political/societal instability in Northern Ireland: he may have no particular interest in the place, but he knows the history and understands the consequences of instability.

What he will prioritise, I suspect, is a deal which keeps business and trade as easy as possible, while promising unionism its future in the UK remains guaranteed unless it loses a border poll (which, he will insist, isn’t going to be called anytime soon).

I suspect, too, that the EU will buy into the importance of restoring political stability/balance to Northern Ireland; if that means a few ‘unique’ arrangements further down the line, then so be it. All of which means the British government and EU have a joint interest (and the US will certainly agree to underwrite it politically) in reaching a deal reasonably quickly.

Many readers of this column, maybe the majority, will be wondering if I’ve been sniffing something before writing it. Doesn’t it sound far too optimistic for me? Maybe, but sometimes realism and optimism coincide.

It’s also worth bearing in mind that deals can often be done under the most unlikely of circumstances. Indeed, the more difficult the circumstances the more likely it is a route to success can be found. As a former talks negotiator once told me: “Yes, the devil may be in the detail; yet there’s often salvation in the small print.”

So, if Johnson and the EU cut a new deal in the next few months what will the consequences be for unionism?

As I noted earlier I think unionists—particularly the UUP and DUP—will want to keep a functioning assembly (even if it means some difficult decisions if the election result places Sinn Féin in top dog role). Assuming those two parties account for the greater number of unionist MLAs (although the TUV has the potential to spring a major surprise) I’d be surprised if they didn’t ensure the survival of the assembly.

That said, they will need something solid and positive to sell to their grassroots. If there isn’t, then the assembly falls. Probably forever.

Back to the prime minister. If Dominic Cummings’ tweets on Tuesday evening are correct—that Johnson always intended to ‘ditch’ the protocol—then it follows that he didn’t ever give a damn about the damage it would do to Northern Ireland. Indeed it might have suited his interests to inflict that damage.

Worryingly, a prime minister who would do that to part of his own country is a prime minister capable of anything. I really do wish I had the confidence to doubt what Cummings is saying.