Opinion

Brian Feeney: Questions over Irish unity answer in Life and Times survey

<span style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif; ">64 per cent said Brexit made no difference to their support for Irish unity</span>
64 per cent said Brexit made no difference to their support for Irish unity 64 per cent said Brexit made no difference to their support for Irish unity

THE results of the 2020 Northern Ireland Life and Times (NILT) survey are out.

It’s a massive survey, highly regarded and used by many organisations to assess their performance and role in society.

For example, in the 2020 survey the results are used to monitor public awareness and confidence in the Police Ombudsman’s Office.

NILT has a total of 52 modules ranging from abortion through breastfeeding, grandparenting, road safety to work orientations.

Not all are asked every year. Work orientations hasn’t been asked since 2000.

However, political attitudes are a module every year and are seized on avidly. Yet there is something seriously wrong with the results, not just this year, but consistently.

As Prof John Doyle of DCU writes: “It is very hard to draw any conclusions based on the latest survey on political issues such as a united Ireland. The serious under-representation of Sinn Féin voters in their sample has been a long-term feature of NILT over many years.”

Furthermore, the survey results for political attitudes are always well out of date. The latest figures are from surveys polled from October-December 2020 and are just not credible.

The results put SF on 10 per cent, neck and neck with the UUP, with the SDLP on 12 per cent and Alliance on 24 per cent. These figures run counter to every professional poll taken this year.

Let’s look at the NILT’s question: How did you vote in the general election of December 2019? Their results are DUP 23 per cent, SF 11 per cent, SDLP 14 per cent, Alliance 28 per cent.

Now in this case we know the actual election results and they are as follows: DUP 30 per cent, SF 23 per cent, SDLP 15 per cent, Alliance 17 per cent. Shurely shome mistake?

As Doyle says, serious under-representation of SF voters, but also gross exaggeration of Alliance support.

Given the skewed results for SF, the NILT figures for lack of support for Irish unity must also be called into question.

Thanks to the high reputation of NILT the latest figures have greatly excited unionist commentators and some academics like Pete Shirlow.

Shirlow now believes that growing demand for a referendum on unity is as hollow and full of air as a soufflé.

On the other hand, given the gross disparity between all other polls and NILT on party political support, it’s more likely that their figures on support for Irish unity are just as unrepresentative of SF voters as the rest of the modules – in short incredible.

Furthermore, their question on Irish unity itself is politically illiterate: Would you vote to unify with the Republic of Ireland?

First, such a vote in the immediate future is not going to be available.

Secondly, the question implies the only option is to join the Republic as is, which isn’t going to happen.

The phraseology of the question inevitably provokes a sentimental answer rather than a rational one.

Since no-one knows the answer to the political, economic, educational and healthcare arrangements in a new Ireland, only those committed to a united Ireland regardless of circumstances will answer yes.

In fact no-one and no political party north or south is asking the NILT question.

These shortcomings of the NILT which has long been regarded as the Holy Grail of datasets on the north need to be examined and the results taken with a pinch of salt, especially where they conflict with other polls like the successful LucidTalk polls.

Since the results of political attitudes are so far from proven reality, perhaps the results in other modules need to be questioned as well.

There’s also the fact that the surveys are always out of date, though taken over the years the socio-economic results are valuable, but they need to be checked against Nisra figures.

What does need to be considered is whether the number of public bodies which rely on the NILT results to assess their performances can continue to accept NILT outcomes as gospel when that is clearly not the case.