Opinion

Deaglán de Bréadún: Unlikely government partners can expect a hard time from Sinn Féin

Fianna Fáil leader Micheál Martin (centre) arrives at Government Buildings in Dublin
Fianna Fáil leader Micheál Martin (centre) arrives at Government Buildings in Dublin Fianna Fáil leader Micheál Martin (centre) arrives at Government Buildings in Dublin

COMMENTATORS should try to avoid political forecasting because, to coin a phrase, there’s no future in it.

However, it is a source of personal gratification that a prophecy I made, back in 2011, now looks like being fulfilled. At that time the Green Party had just spent four years in government in Dublin, with two ministers at the cabinet table, but a general election was looming and their opinion-poll ratings were as low as one and two per cent. A right old pasting at the ballot-box was in the offing and, sure enough, all six of the party’s TDs lost their seats. Comparing them to the early Christians, who were allegedly fed to the lions on occasion, I predicted that their message would live on and they might well end up in cabinet again.

Sure enough, in last February’s general election, 12 Greens were elected to Dáil Éireann, a remarkable recovery. Now, following protracted negotiations and subject to an internal vote of approval by each of the three parties, they are on the verge of coalition with Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael.

Hang on, did I really just write that FF and FG are about to go into government together? A relatively short time ago, that would have seemed as unlikely as a pig flying through the sky. But yes, the political and, in quite a few cases, family descendants of the old Civil War adversaries are about to tie the knot, on a temporary basis at least. Many would say it reflects well on the political maturity of the Irish state: social and economic policies are the issue nowadays, not the wording of a treaty with our next-door neighbour.

There will of course be some opposition within each party to the coalition deal. But poll figures indicate that Fianna Fáil would suffer badly if another general election took place anytime soon. Observers are saying that party leader Micheál Martin had to choose between becoming “taoiseach or toast”. Now he seems set to head the incoming government until the end of 2022, at which point the Fine Gael leader will take over for the rest of the five-year term.

This assumes, of course, that the three-party coalition is a stable arrangement that can stay the course. It looks as if Fianna Fáil are the least likely to pull the plug and that Fine Gael have been the more reluctant dance-partners on this occasion. Leo Varadkar’s handling of the Covid-19 crisis has given him and his party a new lease of political life. They shot up in the polls and there was much speculation that Fine Gael would decide to cash-in on those figures with a “run to the country”. But a general election in the midst of a pandemic would be a total nightmare. Rallies via online video? Remote voting? It doesn’t bear thinking about. The bubble of Fine Gael popularity could burst in their faces – in virtual, on-screen terms, of course.

The Greens have driven a hard bargain and the general consensus is that they have emerged from the negotiations with a very good deal. They have been promised so many developments in line with their policies that it would have been foolish to walk out. Hard-bitten professionals in other parties were inclined to throw their eyes to heaven at signs of internal dissent among the Greens, including the announcement by deputy leader Catherine Martin that she was seeking to take over the top job from Eamon Ryan. However, in terms of the coalition talks, that seemed to increase the anxiety of the other parties to make concessions in order to keep the show on the road.

Sinn Féin were not involved in the coalition negotiations, having been frozen out by Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael. But assuming the deal finally goes through, Mary Lou McDonald and her colleagues will be the main opposition party and principal contenders to lead the next government. The challenge for SF is to maintain and even increase their current level of popularity. The party has enough front-bench talent to give the incoming government a very hard time, although the public might start to weary of constant denunciation in the Dáil. There are some interesting times ahead.

Email: Ddebre1@aol.com

Twitter: @DdeBreadun