Opinion

Allison Morris: DUP's hard Brexit allies may not be best friends forever

The British government's latest Brexit difficulties has already claimed the scalps of Boris Johnson and David Davis - will the Tory deal with the DUP be next?
The British government's latest Brexit difficulties has already claimed the scalps of Boris Johnson and David Davis - will the Tory deal with the DUP be next? The British government's latest Brexit difficulties has already claimed the scalps of Boris Johnson and David Davis - will the Tory deal with the DUP be next?

WELL Brexit is going well isn't it?

The lack of preparation, the political differences within the Conservative Party, a weakened Prime Minister clinging to power with a reduced minority, all indications that Brexit was never going to be plain sailing.

However, after last Friday's claims by Downing Street that they had a cabinet united behind the PM over the softer Brexit plan agreed at Chequers, few could have predicated that the fall out would be so swift and so savage.

While it took the best part of a year for MPs to wake up to the fact there was a troublesome border in Ireland that needed some attention, it appears that very border - few at Westminster had given consideration to since the peace process - will be the undoing of the hard Brexiters grand plans.

The resignation, first of David Davis and then Boris Johnson, followed by a number of lower ranking Tories has created a crisis within the party, but might ultimately focus minds on the situation faced by those living in Northern Ireland who stand to lose the most.

While the Brexit secretary chose his words of resignation carefully, Boris Johnson jumped ship in typically flamboyant style, saying the softer Brexit plan meant Britain was "truly headed for the status of colony" and accused the prime minister of "sending our vanguard into battle with the white flags fluttering above them".

Emotive words intended to sting Theresa May and rally those who would rather see Britain crash out with no deal at all.

One Westminster based political journalist told me he had put in the hardest week's work of his career, and it was only Monday, such was the fast changing fluidity of the situation.

The DUP MPs, who are helping keep Theresa May's head above water, have also reached a crucial point, when decisions will have to be made about their relationship with her government.

While they have naturally radiated towards the hard Brexiters in Parliament, and with Sammy Wilson and Ian Paisley posting pictures of themselves enjoying boisterous lunches with controversial UKIP donor Aaron Banks it would seem that a more pragmatic Brexit may not satisfy some within the party.

They must now make a very real choice as to whether they continue to back the Prime Minister and help her deliver a soft exit from the EU or side with the 'little Englanders' - a move that would lead not just to a leadership challenge but potentially another election.

Theresa May's new cabinet, created on the hop, has not been purged of Brexiters - the new Brexit Secretary Dominic Raab was a strident leave campaigner.

There are suggestions he will be a more hands on and effective Brexit negotiator, and we can only hope he will take more of an interest and understanding in the complex situation in Ireland than David Davis.

His predecessor's only visit to the border was a fleeting affair, with no press interviews given and thus no awkward questions asked, which was probably wise as there were no answers available, instead just spin.

Economically, there is a school of thought that there can be no good Brexit for the island of Ireland, that every economic projection is one of disaster.

In reality the EU have offered a very generous solution to the problem.

Brussels' backstop plan to keep Northern Ireland aligned with EU regulations and customs procedures, which would mean introducing customs checks on ferries across the Irish Sea.

However, Michel Barnier has made it clear that this option is not on offer for Britain as a whole.

"Our backstop cannot be extended to the whole UK. Why? Because it has been designed for the specific situation of Northern Ireland," he said.

This solution, while the most sensible and making the best of a dire situation, has been rejected by Theresa May under pressure from the DUP.

Not for economic but ideological reasons, but that is about to be tested to the limit in the coming weeks and months.

Tory vice chairs Maria Caulfield and Ben Bradley, who also resigned in protest this week, both mention Northern Ireland in their resignation letters, and their frustration that our needs do not reflect their vision for Brexit going forward. Both citing that Northern Ireland and the backstop plan cannot be the deciding factor in negotiations.

The resentment of Tory MPs over having to compromise on Northern Ireland, no longer whispered in the halls of Westminster, but now very much out in the open.

The DUP are tied to a very dysfunctional relationship, their friends in the ranks of the hard Brexiters may not stay allies for much longer.

This is an unfolding drama that may take a few more high profile political scalps before it's over.