Opinion

ANALYSIS: Usual empty rhetoric paves way for a climbdown

Foreign Secretary Liz Truss in the House of Commons yesterday. Picture by PA Wire
Foreign Secretary Liz Truss in the House of Commons yesterday. Picture by PA Wire Foreign Secretary Liz Truss in the House of Commons yesterday. Picture by PA Wire

AHEAD of Liz Truss’s address at Westminster, the British government and their DUP dancing partner sought to exaggerate the significance of what would be said. It had been talked up, talked down, then talked up again, the foreign secretary cast in the Tory press as modern day St George steeling for a fight with the EU dragon, while Boris Johnson was portrayed as more measured. As an approach, it’s best summed up as ‘bad cop and really awful cop’.

Those who have watched this saga unfold over the past six years and since the protocol came into operation know to take everything this Downing Street administration says with a generous pinch of salt. The withdrawal deal was famously “oven ready” yet the British government’s approach since has been inconsistent, expedient and untrustworthy. It likes to blame the inflexibility of international law, to pretend it was somehow out of the room when the European Commission outlined what implementation of the protocol would entail.

Meanwhile, having played a strong hand poorly during the confidence and supply deal, Sir Jeffrey Donaldson now has a depleted armoury, the sole tactic at his disposal stalling the restoration of the institutions. He knows it’s unpopular and unsustainable but that’s the latest corner the DUP has painted itself into. The man who was willing to countenance 40,000 job losses as a result of Brexit and later said the protocol was an “opportunity” to be exploited, now argues that the removal of Irish Sea border takes primacy over devolution.

The British government has indulged Sir Jeffrey, using his concerns about an apparent hike in the cost of living and claims of undermining of the Good Friday Agreement as weapons in its ideologically-driven post-Brexit tussle with the EU. Repeating such gung-ho rhetoric appeals to the Tory base and the European Research Group but ultimately it is always empty.

There was an expectation of something substantive yesterday but yet again it turned out to be hype. For all the posturing, what Liz Truss said was pretty much a restating of last year’s command paper. Unilateral action, like the promised legislation, has been kicked down the road, scheduled to appear in the “coming weeks”. The foreign secretary was effectively using fighting talk to disguise the fact that she’d be returning to the negotiating table at the earliest opportunity, aiming to secure a ‘green channel’ that will enable most goods destined solely for the north to move from Britain unhindered – but as Boris Johnson himself signalled before his visit on Monday, the protocol will prevail.

The DUP has responded positively to what was said though its stated choice of a ‘graduated’ approach does not auger well given the party’s previous deployment of the tactic in 2014, when it and other unionist parties unsuccessfully sought to apply pressure on behalf of the Orange Order. Sir Jeffrey also knows only too well that what was said yesterday may bear little resemblance to the actual legislation, if it ever receives royal assent.

Already the DUP leader appears to be manoeuvring himself towards a climbdown, no doubt spooked by gathering momentum behind the campaign to cut MLAs’ salaries, a move Secretary of State Brandon Lewis is understood to be sympathetic to. Reluctant to let this slow moving process drag on too long, Sir Jeffrey would be better to now accept assurances from the British government rather than wait to see the colour of its money – otherwise he’ll have a long wait on his hands.

When all is said and done, this process is about creating a landing zone that allows the British government, the DUP and the EU to make concessions without losing face. The answer lies in diplomacy and engagement rather than ramping up tensions but there will only be success if all sides are genuine in their desire to seek a resolution rather than simply playing politics.