EDWIN Poots’ election as DUP leader almost a fortnight ago is tonight expected to be ratified by the party’s executive. With a show of hands and the stroke of a pen, the Lagan Valley MLA will move from designate to leader proper.
In the time since Mr Poots defeated Sir Jeffrey Donaldson in the leadership contest by the narrowest possible margin, we have been given only glimpses of his plans for the party rather than a clear vision.
On issues like the protocol and calls for the chief constable’s resignation over the PSNI’s handling of the Bobby Storey funeral, he’s been far from gung-ho, seemingly adopting a softer line than his predecessor on both. Arlene Foster loyalists suggest this indicates that the putsch that forced her out had more to do with personality than policy. The new DUP leader has even indicated that he has no problems with language legislation – but has yet to commit to a timeframe.
If tonight’s meeting of the DUP’s ruling executive goes without a hitch then Mr Poots will wake up tomorrow morning preparing to put his stamp on the party. The expectation is that he’ll signal a ‘back to basics’ approach that owes more to old school Paisleyism than the comparative modernising of Peter Robinson.
His supporters may welcome a combative, rabble-rousing approach but whether that gains traction with the electorate is another matter.
In the short-term, Mr Poots will seek to reflect his leadership’s direction in his ministerial appointments. Yet already this is proving problematic, with growing speculation that his favoured candidate for the first minister’s post, Mervyn Storey, has deep reservations about taking the job.
And who can blame him? By decoupling the first minister’s role from the leader’s, Mr Poots appears to be creating an accountability buffer that in theory will absorb any internal and external bad feeling while leaving him blame free. Fulfilling such a role would require the person to be either an especially naive individual or an unwavering loyalist. It has been speculated that if Mr Storey doesn’t take the job, next in line is Paul Givan, a close friend and ally of Mr Poots. However, don’t rule out the possibility of the new leader backtracking on his previous pledge and taking up the first minister’s role himself. If Mr Poots’ first couple of weeks in the job has proved one thing, it’s that we can’t take him for granted.
As for the other ministerial posts, the expectation is that there will be a full clear-out, with Diane Dodds, Peter Weir and Junior Minister Gordon Lyons all moved on. A number of backroom staff are also expected to leave.
Their replacements will be Poots apparatchiks, those who helped the agriculture minister seize power. Paul Frew has been earmarked for the economy ministry, while Michelle McIlveen has been linked with the education portfolio. Her involvement in the recent controversy at Killinchy Primary School notwithstanding, the Strangford MLA is seen as a reasonably safe pair of hands, with previous executive experience.
Initial speculation that newly-elected DUP deputy leader Paula Bradley will be given a seat at the executive table has all but petered out. The North Belfast MLA has been conspicuously low key since she emerged as the surprise victor in the deputy leadership contest. We can only speculate as to how much of this is under the direction of her leader or through personal choice, but it does reinforce the belief among many that the role will be far diminished from that held by Nigel Dodds.
With sporadic media appearances and a period as leader designate only, it’s been difficult to get a handle on the new DUP leadership. However, a picture is emerging of a less sure-footed Mr Poots, who not only faces the same challenges as his predecessor but may have inadvertently created a few more of his own.
