Opinion

Patrick Murphy: Sinn Féin’s popularity shows that public relations beats logic

Sinn Féin President Mary Lou McDonald at Leinster House. Picture by Brian Lawless/PA Wire
Sinn Féin President Mary Lou McDonald at Leinster House. Picture by Brian Lawless/PA Wire Sinn Féin President Mary Lou McDonald at Leinster House. Picture by Brian Lawless/PA Wire

Describing is much easier than explaining. So while the unprecedented rise of Sinn Féin’s popularity, particularly in the south, has been well described, there has been little explanation.

The standard justification for political popularity is that a party’s policies and/or performance resonate with the electorate. But SF has never served a day in office in Dublin, so it has delivered nothing there and its 24 years in government in Belfast have produced little more than nothing.

Its policies have shown a remarkable flexibility, ranging from subtle shifts to complete u-turns and an inconsistency both within and between both Irish states.

Indeed the policies it opposes in Dublin are remarkably similar to those it implements in Belfast. (Eoin Ó Broin, SF housing spokesperson in the Dáil, would have a field day criticising SF housing policy in Stormont.)

Despite that, SF’s rise continues. So what is going on? Is its popularity just a passing trend, or can it translate popular acclaim into electoral dominance, north and south?

The modern party was founded in 1970 on what it called republican principles. These included non-recognition of the two Irish states and their legal and political systems. SF’s only policy at the time was supporting violence to achieve Brits Out.

Fifty years later, it administers the north for Britain and aims to be in government in Dublin, where it recently dropped its opposition to the non-jury Special Criminal Court.

It condemns political violence, but defends PIRA violence, which killed over 1700 people, (60 per cent of all Troubles deaths) including 650 civilians.

So it appears that at least some of its popularity (presumably among young people) is based on the romanticism of past republican violence. If that resonates with the public, it offers an interesting insight into modern Ireland.

On social and economic issues, Sinn Féin pursues a centre-right populist approach, as illustrated by two examples of differing importance. In 1989 Gerry Adams said the EU was created for profiteers, the wealthy, big farmers and multinationals. In 2008 he said, “Ireland’s place is within the EU.” The party became passionately pro-EU without notification, debate or discussion.

Last month, Sinn Féin sided with the DUP to defend fox hunting in the north, presumably to retain its rural support base. In the south, it opposes fox hunting, presumably to gain the middle class urban vote. If that’s not populism, what is it? Sinn Féin might reply that it doesn’t matter what it is, it works.

None of this would have been possible without the party’s remarkable ability to create and control the political agenda. For example, its “conversation about a united Ireland” tells us what we should talk about.

Even the Catholic Church fell for that one, claiming in its new year message that, “conversations are already taking place” about constitutional change. (Really?)

By claiming ownership of the peace process, SF has benefited from unwavering media support, mainly in sections of the Dublin press. The party has been blessed with incompetent enemies (particularly the DUP) and some fortuitous events, such as Brexit.

It has been helped by being most things to most people, at home and abroad. In foreign policy, for example, it supports the US and China, who are effectively enemies and it is uncritical of Russia - just in case.

On the basis of achievement, Sinn Féin should be lagging behind Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael who, despite their history of political failure, have managed the Covid crisis well and are leading a strong economic recovery (certainly stronger than SF is doing in the north).

But Sinn Féin’s popularity shows that public relations beats logic. That is how Boris Johnson was elected. He too recognises that politics is not a science. It is an art.

However, there comes a point where electoral logic takes over from artistry. Boris Johnson has now reached that point. Whether SF ever reaches it remains to be seen. It all depends on events and so far events, and their media management, have worked in their favour.