Opinion

Patrick Murphy: Welcome to Stormont’s latest, and most bizarre, cold war

Patrick Murphy

Patrick Murphy

Patrick Murphy is an Irish News columnist and former director of Belfast Institute for Further and Higher Education.

The current dispute over the Irish Sea border is set to be reflected in a much greater struggle for power between the US and China in two other bodies of water: the Indian and Pacific Oceans. Pictured is Chinese President Xi Jinping. AP Photo/Ng Han Guan
The current dispute over the Irish Sea border is set to be reflected in a much greater struggle for power between the US and China in two other bodies of water: the Indian and Pacific Oceans. Pictured is Chinese President Xi Jinping. AP Photo/Ng Han Guan The current dispute over the Irish Sea border is set to be reflected in a much greater struggle for power between the US and China in two other bodies of water: the Indian and Pacific Oceans. Pictured is Chinese President Xi Jinping. AP Photo/Ng Han Guan

Brexit is about to go global. The current dispute over the Irish Sea border is set to be reflected in a much greater struggle for power between the US and China in two other bodies of water: the Indian and Pacific Oceans.

Surprisingly, as a member of the EU, Ireland (and northern nationalists) will side with China, while Britain (and unionists) will be in the American camp. That will leave Ireland aligned with Berlin rather than Boston, the UK in an enhanced relationship with the US and the assembly even more deeply divided, this time over world events.

Welcome to Stormont’s latest, and certainly most bizarre, cold war.

The conflict arises from American foreign policy, which has focussed on Europe and the Middle East since 1945. Now, however, the US is concentrating on what it regards as China’s attempt to control the Indo-Pacific area. Hence its withdrawal from Afghanistan and, by December, from Iraq.

In seeking allies for its new policy, the US considers the EU untrustworthy, because Germany and France have rapidly expanding trade relations with China. The EU has also left the door open to the Chinese technology giant, Huawei, for its 5G networks, which the US rejects as a cybersecurity threat.

So America regards Britain as its only reliable ally in Europe. (You will have your own view on that one.) This explains why the US recently convinced Australia (which has coasts on the Indian and Pacific Oceans) to withdraw from a contract with France to build submarines. The US does not trust France or the EU.

So it has created a new military pact between America, Britain and Australia, divorcing Britain totally from EU security and defence policy. Meanwhile, the French president and the EU Commission president are pushing for an EU army of its own, following America’s withdrawal from Afghanistan.

With Britain gone, an EU army is now more likely. It would require greater EU political union, which would distance Ireland even further from Washington. It would result in NATO’s decline, especially since the likely new German government parties want to leave the US nuclear umbrella.

You may suggest that none of this will impact on the north, but as usual, SF is ahead of the game. In February, Chris Hazzard MP tweeted, “Great to see President Xi has announced the end of absolute poverty in China this week. China has spent more than ¥1.6trillion in this historic endeavour including 10 million new homes and 25 million renovated homes.”

The Chinese Embassy in Ireland's Twitter account welcomed Mr Hazzard's support, responding with a quote from Nelson Mandela. (The SDLP criticised SF’s tweet, suggesting that it does not realise it is on the same side as China.)

Ireland’s economic model has been based on EU membership and US investment through low business taxes. It has a foot on both boats, but as the vessels drift apart, it must chose which one to board, or risk falling into the water.

So Ireland needs a future plan, to replace its present policy of, “Ah sure, it will all be fine.” About 75 per cent of its foreign direct investment comes from the US and UK. Only 5 per cent comes from Germany.

Yet Ireland is still on course for political (and probably military) integration with Germany (within the EU), as it hopes for export opportunities to China, particularly in agri-food.

So where does that leave the north? The protocol positions us semi-detached from the UK and semi-attached to Dublin, the EU and China. Will all northern nationalists accept that, or would some prefer to support America?

It is time for Dublin and northern nationalists to prioritise between China and the US, which means either staying in, or leaving, a politically integrated EU. That decision-making process will add a new dimension to sectarianism at Stormont and lay the basis for an interesting debate in Dublin (if there is one).

In the meantime, how do you say Tiocfaidh ár lá in Mandarin?