WELL there you go now. The inevitable is coming into clear view. Funny how it always does.
It was inevitable that Hillary Clinton would be the Democratic nominee. And it was inevitable that Donald Trump would be the Republican nominee.
Now that sounds easy to say after Tuesday’s primaries. Would anyone have predicted a Trump candidacy a year ago, six months ago?
Sure you would have – that is if you took the time to examine how the Republican Party has reacted to Barack Obama these past eight years.
It’s really a kind of political physics: action and counter action, force and resistance.
Based on their attitude and opposition to Obama, who would the same party members and voters turn to in order to apply the very same attitude and opposition to Hillary Clinton. Question answered.
On Tuesday night last, after scooping up five state primaries by impressive margins, Trump told his supporters that Hillary was only in the position she was because she was playing the “woman’s card.”
Had this been eight years ago, and Trump the leader of the Republican pack, Barack Obama (for sure a Muslim from Mars) would have been guilty of playing the “black card.”
Behind Trump at the Tuesday night celebration stood New Jersey governor, and former Trump rival for the nomination, Chris Christie.
Christie had a look on his face akin to what you might expect after ten years in a North Korean prison. Beside him stood his wife, Mary Pat, with a look on her face that you might expect after spending ten years in a North Korean prison - in a cell with Donald Trump.
The Mary Pats of America will play a pivotal role in this election. She is a Republican, loyal to her husband and his party. But how does she square that with Trump’s unabashed sexism?
We await the answer in November.
In the intervening time said sexism will be directed full force at Hillary Clinton. It can’t be ignored or discounted.
As such, this will be an election dogfight for the ages, no matter what the opinion polls say.
And Donald Trump could win because the deciding factor could be how many voters will hold their noses before voting for either candidate.
Eight years ago, even four, this was not the case. Voters cast their ballots with little reservation for Obama and John McCain in 2008, Obama again and Mitt Romney in 2012.
If Mary Pat and others like her vote for Donald Trump you have to figure in an exercise in nose holding.
And those Bernie Sanders supporters - all those passionate young people who are staring at an American economic life that scares the heck out of them – will for sure hold their noses in voting for Hillary – that’s if they vote for her at all.
Nevertheless, in the coming days, there will be a pronounced flocking to Hillary Clinton’s banner.
Her primary wins Tuesday in four of the five states up for grabs, including crucial Pennsylvania, has turned a steep hill into a veritable Mount Everest for Sanders.
Strangely enough, this is unfamiliar territory for Hillary who has done everything and been everywhere in American political life.
Except where she is now standing. This is altogether new.
Clinton is now just a few more primaries away from being the nominee of her party for the presidency.
Sanders has been a doughty opponent. But he is not Barack Obama.
So as of now we have passed the point where Hillary’s 2008 disappointment will not be repeated. She will duly take to the general election campaign battlefield bristling with qualifications.
Being a woman, she is of course unlike any party standard bearer in the history of American general elections. So it is a bit of a challenge to easily draw comparison with candidates past.
On the qualification and experience level Hillary is, interestingly, most in line with George HW Bush, who wielded a resume that screamed “pathway to the White House.”
This worked for Bush against Michael Dukakis in 1988. Bush swatting aside Dukakis with a gold star curriculum vitae was one thing, but Donald Trump will be impervious to such a tactic.
Those who will vote for Hillary simply on the basis of her experience are already lined up and accounted for.
Same goes with those who will vote for her on the basis of her being a woman, being a Clinton, being simply the party nominee.
It’s the nose holders that require her fullest attention now.
