It’s been a week of EastEnders-style doof-doof-doof cliffhanger moments. It’s also been a very long time since Peter Robinson -watching one plan after another bite the dust - has seemed so dithery, incoherent and not quite in control.
He’s clearly not used to being the one who has to react to an agenda set by others; and the fact that it is Mike Nesbitt setting the agenda is only adding to his sense of misery and helplessness.
Here’s Robinson’s dilemma: he doesn’t want to be seen walking out of the Executive (because that would make it look as if he was following Nesbitt’s lead, as well as potentially kick starting a chain reaction that could bring down all of the institutions); but nor does he want to sit in the Executive for a while, either (because, until the air has been cleared, he doesn’t want the UUP/TUV/PUP/Ukip pointing an accusatory finger at him). He tried extending the summer recess for a few weeks. He tried persuading Cameron to legislate for a period of suspension. All he has left is the vague threat of taking ‘unilateral action.’
He has made it very clear that, “come Monday, it won’t just be business as usual.” Given the fact that business as usual consists of two snarly parties finding it enormously difficult to work with each other, something that isn’t business as usual sounds like progress. But bearing in mind that this is the Assembly we’re talking about, then it’s pretty certain that Robinson actually means there’ll be no business at all. He’ll find a way of closing down the Executive (which is what Sinn Fein did between June and November 2008) and of losing the pen he uses to sign off joint documents with McGuinness.
Meanwhile, he’ll push for something he describes as ‘intensive talks”—when what he actually means is intensive care talks. Or, to be precise, talks about the sort of talks required to rescue the agreement agreed at the previous talks which had, in turn, been convened to ponder the collapse of the talks before the last talks, as well as the talks before that. And if the process is going to require an American to chair it, could I suggest author Dan Brown? He’s an expert on preposterously convoluted history, absurd plots, bizarre codes and mumbo-jumbo in general. If anyone could make sense of the sort of stuff that local parties come up with, it would be him.
Meanwhile, the unionist parties have turned a problem for Sinn Fein into yet another free-for-all amongst themselves. The DUP is accusing the UUP of “abandoning the battlefield” and of “positioning themselves for the next election.” Which is, of course, exactly what the DUP used to do when David Trimble was First Minister. They’re cross with Nesbitt because they know that the tactics worked spectacularly well for them between 2001-2007.
Jim Allister was pleased with Mike Nesbitt last week but - and this may be an indication that he is aware that the move has proved popular across unionism, including with TUV voters - he’s now asking why the “UUP suddenly developed a conscience about IRA murders.” It’s worth noting that Councillor Jenny Palmer and her husband John admit to choosing the UUP over the TUV after the decision to withdraw from the Executive. The Ukip’s David McNarry (a former member of the UUP) “rejects out of hand the narrow self-interest shown by Mike Nesbitt. It shocks me that, in seeking to position themselves for a Stormont election…they have put party before country.” Again, McNarry may have party concerns of his own, because I suspect that many Ukip members and potential voters will have been very happy with what Nesbitt has done.
So, is this a real crisis? Is the Assembly going to fall? Well, we know that neither the British nor Irish government want us. We know that none of the parties here want a period of direct rule, fearing that months could turn into years. We know that Robinson doesn’t want to end up in the same place as David Trimble. We know that Sinn Fein doesn’t want to enter an election south of the border with what some elements of Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil might be tempted to describe as, “the new shadow of the gunman” hanging over them. We know that most people, even those who reckon that the Assembly is ineffective, still think that it remains better than the alternatives.
Add all that up and the only conclusion to be drawn is that the Assembly will carry on in some shape or form.
