Oddly enough one of the dullest elections we have known—I described it yesterday as the ‘cautious election’—has produced an extraordinary outcome.
Labour wiped out in Scotland. The SNP sweeping all before them. The Lib-Dems crashing everywhere. The Conservatives defying expectations and expert opinion. Clegg and Miliband heading for the door. Farage deflated. Cameron reasserting his authority over the party while shutting down a potential leadership challenge from Boris Johnson and some truculent backbenchers.
Most commentators had assumed we’d be spending the night discussing the mathematics and permutations surrounding the make-up of a coalition, but instead we spent the night discussing why the polls seemed to have got it so wrong. The last time we saw this happen was in 1992 when they indicated victory for Labour, yet the Conservatives—with the largest number of votes in their history—ended up with a reasonably comfortable majority.
The local results were also very interesting. Naomi Long lost her seat in East Belfast, even though the unionist share of the vote (49.3 per cent) was the lowest it has ever been. Sinn Fein lost Fermanagh/South Tyrone to the man who had described some of them as “scum.’ The SDLP held their three seats, even though Alasdair McDonnell broke the record for the lowest ever vote share for a winning candidate, with just 24.5 per cent. The DUP lost South Antrim, but will have been relieved to have seen off the challenge from Jo-Anne Dobson in Upper Bann.
The big winners were the UUP. Most pundits, me included, thought they wouldn’t win anything, yet they won two seats. It means that Nesbitt’s game plan of incremental progress at each election seems to be working. It copper fastens his leadership, cheers up the grassroots, proves that the party can, in fact, win and brings in much needed funding from Westminster. So a very good election for him.
It also seems to be a victory for the unionist pact, with East Belfast and Fermanagh/South Tyrone back in unionist hands, North Belfast held with a larger majority and an increased share of the vote in Newry/Armagh. Had there been a pact in South Belfast it’s likely that a unionist would have won. So it’s inevitable that pacts will play a part in future elections
Sinn Fein is not going to like this result. They had banked on a Labour/SNP government, an anti-austerity agenda and the DUP with no part to play. Instead they have Cameron back and the DUP agreeing some sort of nod and wink understanding with him. So expect some problems back here. Sinn Fein and the DUP need to sort out the ongoing stalemate on welfare reform as well as kick-starting the stalled business of the Stormont House Agreement. Sinn Fein took a gamble on the expectation of a change of government and it hasn’t paid off. Indeed, they have ended up having to deal with a strengthened Cameron and his mandate for more cuts.
But the biggest issue facing the government and all of the parties is the state and shape of the United Kingdom itself. 130 years ago it was the Irish Question that dominated British politics and reduced and reshaped the United Kingdom. Today it is the Scottish Question: and it’s a question that isn’t going to go away, either. The SNP may not hold the balance of power but it certainly has the power to create huge problems for Cameron as well as for Labour.
Ironically, the DUP’s proposal for a Commission on the Union may hold appeal for everyone. It would buy Cameron some time on one vexing question while he prepares for the equally vexing issue of the EU referendum.
