There is no doubt that this has been an exceptionally challenging year in economic terms.
Just as countries around the world were trying to bounce back following the devastating pandemic, they were hit with a series of financial shocks.
This time last year, Russia had not invaded Ukraine, inflation was still low, as were mortgage rates, and energy prices were nowhere near the unprecedented levels that we have witnessed over recent months.
Few could have anticipated that the cost of basic food items would increase sharply along with many essential bills to the extent that more families would be forced to rely on food banks and children sent to school hungry.
It has been a grim year for many people but the question is what lies ahead as we move into 2023?
A leading bank in Northern Ireland has looked towards the future and its forecasts do not make for positive reading.
Danske Bank believes the current cycle of high inflation, low consumer confidence and tighter monetary policy means the north will definitely experience a recession in 2023.
The bank's chief economist Conor Lambe did point to a gradual decline in inflation but expects it to remain elevated and have an impact on household budgets.
Given the difficulties currently experienced by the UK economy, it will come as no surprise that Northern Ireland is also facing a recession.
We have been in this situation before and it is bad news for a range of businesses, some of them already struggling with labour shortages, high costs and customers cutting back on spending.
Danske predicts the worst-hit sectors will be wholesale and retail, manufacturing, arts and entertainment, and accommodation and food services.
As people here face another challenging year, it makes it all the more important that politicians do their utmost to find ways of helping families, individuals, the elderly and the vulnerable.
The interests of businesses in Northern Ireland will be best served by locally-elected representatives, doing their jobs in a devolved administration, working for local communities.
There is also an opportunity to make full use of the Northern Ireland Protocol, which offers clear advantages in terms of trade.
A shrinking economy is a bleak prospect but that should spur a redoubling of efforts to lessen the pain for households and businesses.
