Opinion

Leadership election has implications beyond DUP

JUST 28 assembly members and eight MPs will today elect either Edwin Poots or Sir Jeffrey Donaldson as the new DUP leader.

It has been a highly unusual contest. The campaigns to succeed Arlene Foster have been conducted in secrecy, with neither man presenting their policies in public or subjecting them to wider scrutiny.

And though some election materials have been leaked, DUP representatives have been gagged from talking to the media.

How the DUP chooses its leader is, of course, a matter for the party.

Outsiders are, however, entitled to observe that tiny electorates, highly secretive campaigns and bans on public debate are not generally regarded as features of robustly democratic structures.

Beyond the DUP itself and unionism more generally, today's election has implications for Stormont.

The new leader will have to choose who will become first minster when Mrs Foster steps down at the end of June.

Sir Jeffrey cannot take the post himself as he is an MP; and although Mr Poots is an MLA - and the current executive agriculture minister - he has already said he won't take the top job because he wants to concentrate on rebuilding the DUP.

Diane Dodds, the economy minister, may be Sir Jeffrey's favoured candidate for first minister. Paul Givan is thought to be Mr Poots's choice.

But whoever is first minister, the stability and sustainability of Stormont will depend on the new DUP leader's approach to power-sharing and issues including Irish language legislation, north-south bodies and post-Brexit trade arrangements.

Both camps have, for example, been attempting to out-do each other on how vigorously they will oppose the Irish Sea border.

That bellicose tone may appeal to those who think that Mrs Foster's DUP was not hard-line enough, but it ignores the fact that the party has been losing votes in the direction of Alliance at a greater rate than to the TUV.

Indeed, a reinvigorated Doug Beattie-led UUP could emerge as another electoral threat to the DUP.

Whoever becomes leader will still have to offer a credible explanation to disaffected unionists why the DUP championed - and trusted - Boris Johnson and facilitated a Brexit deal it now bitterly opposes.

That may be a challenge too far for either Mr Poots - who is implementing the Irish Sea border - or Sir Jeffrey, who was centrally involved when the DUP held the balance of power at Westminster.