Opinion

Second referendum may be Theresa May's only option

THE one outcome which Theresa May did not want from Wednesday's EU summit in Brussels was an extension of Brexit beyond the end of May.

The new withdrawal deadline of October 31 leaves her in an increasingly perilous position, because it allows enough time for a challenge to her leadership, a general election and a second referendum.

While six months would appear to be ample time to plan an orderly exit from the European Union, Mrs May's vulnerability means that she is not in control of the process. Her problem is no longer that she is running out of time. She has now run out of friends.

She has limited support within her own party, which is increasingly focussed on who her successor might be. She can command a parliamentary majority only by alienating many of her own MPs and the Conservatives' talks with Labour have so far failed to produce anything of substance.

Her former friends in the DUP are strongly opposed to the Brexit deal, so their confidence and supply arrangement with the Conservatives is no longer guaranteed. Within that context the Prime Minister's options are severely limited, particularly since the word "compromise" does not appear to be part of British parliamentary vocabulary.

It was therefore disappointing that Mrs May had nothing new to say yesterday in the House of Commons. She called on MPs to do their national duty, but she has no power or even influence to ensure that they adhere to their responsibilities and there is no evidence that she can gain a Brexit consensus through another series of parliamentary votes.

So unless she reaches some form of agreement with Jeremy Corbyn or pushes her Brexit deal through parliament at the fourth attempt, Mrs May has only three remaining options. She must resign, call a general election or hold a second referendum.

She has said she will not resign until she has successfully led Britain out of the EU, although she may be forced to reconsider that pledge.

To call a general election she needs the support of two-thirds of MPs under the terms of the fixed-term parliamentary legislation and she is unlikely to gain that support, particularly since her own party is struggling in the polls.

That leaves her facing a second referendum. She is strongly opposed to such an idea, even suggesting that it could threaten the country's "social cohesion". But she may be forced to concede that she will hold a referendum on the terms of a deal which is approved by parliament.

It is not what she would have wanted, but holding a public vote on Brexit may be her only way forward.