Opinion

Mid-term elections an important test for Donald Trump

Americans will vote today in elections that are being seen as verdict on Donald Trump's deeply divisive and highly controversial presidency.

Although the president's name is not on the ballot for any of the congressional or senate contests, the mid-term elections are essentially regarded as a referendum on the incumbent and will be watched closely.

It is not just Mr Trump's popularity or otherwise that is under scrutiny.

The results could signal a shift in the power dynamic in Washington, which is currently stacked in the president's favour with Republicans holding a majority in both the Senate and House of Representatives.

The significance of this majority was seen in recent weeks when the Senate narrowly supported Judge Brett Kavanaugh, Mr Trump's Supreme Court nominee, in an often brutal process that sparked protests in the US and international dismay.

This was an important win for Mr Trump and there is no doubt he wanted the nomination resolved before the mid-term elections.

There is much at stake in today's polls.

All 435 seats in the House of Representatives are up for re-election with a further 35 Senate seats in play.

Political observers suggest it is more likely that the house will move to Democratic control, which would create enormous difficulties for the president.

Not only would he find it hard to pass legislation but there is a the prospect the Democrats could push for impeachment.

Much depends on the turnout today and the eventual outcome.

Certainly, polling suggests this is an exceptionally polarised election with Republican supporters increasingly older, white, male and without a college degree. Democrats have greater support among women, people of colour, young people and college graduates.

The sharp differences in US politics were epitomised by the closing arguments from Mr Trump and his predecessor, Barack Obama.

While Mr Obama urged people to vote against rhetoric that stirred anger and fear, the president sought to heighten alarm over immigration, despatching thousands of troops to the border ahead of the arrival of a walking caravan of desperate migrants, among them many children.

However, while many people on this side of the Atlantic may watch appalled at the words and deeds of President Trump, there is no doubt he retains a significant level of support which cannot be dismissed. Republican candidates will also be buoyed by a growing economy, with the unemployment rate at its lowest since 1969.

Mr Trump has confounded predictions before but this is a major test two years on from his surprise election.

It remains to be seen what message the American electorate sends to this chaotic and disruptive president.