So, what happens next? The election is over and Sinn Féin, having bested the DUP in seats and votes at last May’s assembly election, has done the same thing this time.
Does that mean we’ll get any inkling about what advice/strategy the party panel, appointed by Jeffrey Donaldson in response to the Framework Agreement three months ago, offered him? Or is that advice still in play, just waiting for what would happen on May 18?
Fair enough, Donaldson will be reasonably happy that the party more or less held its own. There wasn’t a catastrophic collapse in votes (although he would have preferred to close the gap with Sinn Féin with a higher percentage share); the party went out with 122 seats and came back with 122; and he saw off the continuing potential threat from the TUV.
Jim Allister will be disappointed: having done much better than predicted last May, he would have hoped for more seats and votes this time. But it wasn’t to be.
A loss of seats – even only a dozen or so – and a good performance from the TUV would have been a problem for Donaldson. So much so, in fact, it might have kick-started the sort of internal revolt that toppled both Arlene Foster and Edwin Poots.
More important, it’s always easier for a leader to take risks when he has clearly seen off the challenges he faced going into an election. I’m not saying that he will green-light an immediate return to the executive, but he does have wriggle room now that he didn’t have on May 17.
Wriggle room is essential for any leader who has difficult decisions to make. I have always taken the view that Donaldson and the local leadership team want to find a route back to the assembly/executive. That view hasn’t changed.
And while key party players in the Commons and Lords have been growling, particularly in response to the tin-eared, going-through-the-motions bullying from Chris Heaton-Harris, I’m not persuaded they would be prepared to defenestrate Donaldson if he made the case for flexibility. Not least because another leadership race would be a Grand Opera House farce; and the party isn’t really spoiled for choice.
The problem for Donaldson is finding the route. I think he knows Rishi Sunak will offer him some cover in the way of Westminster legislation (which Labour is likely to support); but he also knows Sunak will do nothing unless and until he has a cast-iron guarantee from Donaldson that the DUP will reboot and return to work.
Donaldson also has to decide who would take the role of Deputy First Minister, because I’m not sure he wants to be away from Westminster in the run-up to a general election which has to be called by January 2025 (although it will probably happen earlier than that).
Anyway, back to my original point. If Donaldson is serious about rebooting then he will have to make a very strong case that devolution is preferable to direct rule. A case so persuasive it will be accepted even in the circumstances of the Windsor Framework remaining, to all intents and purposes, unchanged.
Personally, I can’t see the EU reopening negotiations (for a second time), although I don’t think it would get particularly uppity if Sunak introduced legislation that eased some concerns for the DUP and broader unionism.
Mind you, if Donaldson isn’t able to persuade his party to prioritise devolution over direct rule then everything changes: the Framework would remain in place; the NIO would run NI; and Sunak would just blank the DUP.
The other case Donaldson has to make is that devolution, with local decisions, is better than the only alternative. I think that’s why his party is placing so much emphasis on reform of the funding/Barnett processes, hoping that a return would be accompanied by a huge injection of hard cash; with the prospect of further to come when a major investment conference makes its way here in September.
I have no doubt that Sunak and the NIO (and probably Labour sources, too) are making it clear that money – and likely the conference – will not be forthcoming in the absence of an assembly/executive to allocate it.
I think Donaldson could make both cases for devolution, if only because the DUP needs to exercise power if it is to have a demonstrable purpose. But he still has another problem. The majority of unionists – even those who have accepted the Protocol/Framework is here to stay – have been unsettled by both. They believe their identity and sense of broader UK citizenship has been undermined. For Donaldson to persuade them to trust him he has to make a very good case that the union remains safe.
It's a difficult case in one particular sense: how do you say the union is safe when, in a number of areas, Northern Ireland is also impacted by EU regulations? He can play the ‘NI can only leave the UK when a majority vote for its removal’ card, of course, tying it in with the bigger project of restructuring political/electoral unionism and finding ways to grow the pro-union base. So, I think we’ll now see increased debate on that issue, followed by new forms of contact and cooperation across the broad pro-union communities.
His biggest problem, obviously, will be whether any reboot strategy can withstand first contact with Jim Allister, the LCC, Orange Order and new-generation loyalism.
One thing he has in his favour is 18 months or so until the next election; enough time, perhaps, for the reboot to bed down and some of the financial goodies to flow into the system. It would also help if his MLAs rowed in behind him, along with the UUP and two unionist independents.
As I say, I’m pretty sure devolution is Donaldson’s preferred direction of travel. It remains a hard sell and would require courage – because concession will be required. What he doesn’t have any more is time. He has to jump one way or the other.
