Opinion

Deaglán de Bréadún: Deafening sound of shifting tectonic plates

Sinn Féin leaders Mary Lou McDonald and Michelle O'Neill pictured in Belfast following the party's success in the local government election. Picture by Mal McCann
Sinn Féin leaders Mary Lou McDonald and Michelle O'Neill pictured in Belfast following the party's success in the local government election. Picture by Mal McCann Sinn Féin leaders Mary Lou McDonald and Michelle O'Neill pictured in Belfast following the party's success in the local government election. Picture by Mal McCann

When there is a dramatic development in politics, such as a major rise or fall in support for different parties at the ballot box, you can usually expect an observer (such as yours truly) to comment: "The tectonic plates are shifting."

Tectonic means "pertaining to the structure of the earth's crust". Science was never my best subject but I'm told that the same earthly crust consists of 15 to 20 mobile tectonic plates.

There's another phrase that could be used in the same political context, coined by our own WB Yeats, who wrote in his poem about the 1916 Rising that things had "changed, changed utterly: a terrible beauty is born".

Following the results of the northern local elections last week, the rattle of the tectonic plates is almost deafening.

Having already become the biggest party in the Stormont assembly, Sinn Féin are now top of the list at local council level.

I don't know how many times I've heard this surge in SF votes described as a "tsunami", a word that became common currency after the dreadful earthquake of St Stephen's Day 2004 which generated waves up to 100 feet high, killing an estimated 228,000 people in 14 countries surrounding the Indian Ocean.

The use of the same word in the local election context reflects the surprise of many observers at the scale of the Sinn Féin vote. It also helps to convey the shivering feeling that a high proportion of unionists no doubt experienced when they heard or read the election figures.

Personally speaking, it recalled a visit I made with other journalists to the coast of Thailand in March 2005, just over three months after the disaster.

It was hard to decide what was most upsetting: the photographs of bloated bodies displayed in the hope of identification or the slightly older pictures left by relatives and friends for the same reason. Many who were still missing or unidentified were young people (some of them Irish) who were no doubt having a great time before the disaster and feeling delighted to have escaped the December weather in their home countries.

The number of deaths in the December 2004 disaster was far in excess of the 3,600-plus figure for the Northern Ireland Troubles, but that doesn't lessen the tragedy for the latter group of victims or the grief still felt by their loved ones. The big difference between the natural disaster and the conflict on this island of ours was that the latter could have been avoided somewhat more easily.

The most important thing in the north is to ensure there is no resurgence of the Troubles. A rebellion against British and unionist rule must not be succeeded by an equivalent violent uprising against an administration where nationalists have the majority role, eg in a united Ireland achieved by democratic vote.

The recent death of Peter Brooke, who served as Secretary of State from 1989 to '92, brought back memories of the constructive role he played in helping to get the peace process off the ground, especially in his statement made in November 1990 that "it is not the aspiration to a sovereign, united Ireland against which we set our face, but its violent expression... the British government has no selfish strategic or economic interest in Northern Ireland".

In Paul Routledge's 1997 biography of John Hume, we are told that the SDLP leader persuaded the Northern Ireland Secretary to adopt that positive and constructive formula although the insertion of the word "selfish" was Brooke's own idea.

One had to feel a certain sympathy for the Ulster Unionists and the SDLP over the results the two parties got last week.

If Hume were alive, he might very well emphasise that peace is more important than political ambition. The two parties were central to the peace process and paid a high price for opening the door to Sinn Féin and the Democratic Unionist Party, but they can console themselves with the thought that their sacrifice helped so much to bring about the relatively calm situation we enjoy today.

If one drew up a list of reasons for the latest Sinn Féin success it would surely include the DUP's abstentionism from the power-sharing executive. Clearly even moderate nationalists found it quite annoying.

At the same time, it was clever of the DUP to stay away until the local election votes were cast, thereby lessening the prospect of losing support to the Traditional Unionist Voice. Although the marching season in Northern Ireland doesn't have the same level of drama that it had in the past, it would probably be sensible of Sir Jeffrey Donaldson and his friends to remain sitting on the fence until it is over and then, assisted by some constructive language from Brussels and London, make their way up Stormont Hill and past the statue of Lord Edward Carson.

The prospect of taking second place to Michelle O'Neill at the head of the executive clearly won't delight unionists but it might be easier to swallow if someone like Emma Little-Pengelly takes the job while Sir Jeffrey remains at Westminster.

Meanwhile, the Sinn Féin surge will no doubt arouse speculation that the party could get a similar boost in the next general election in the Republic. But that's an issue for another day.