The political future of the north may not quite be the main reason for President Biden’s forthcoming visit to Ireland. The military future of the south might represent a more likely American interest.
Recent policy shifts in Dublin suggest that he may be coming to offer public support for the Irish government’s slide away from neutrality, as illustrated by its nonsensical claim that Ireland is militarily neutral, but not politically neutral. (Only the Irish could claim to be half neutral.)
Ireland is already aligned with EU (and thus US) military policy through membership of PESCO, part of the EU’s security strategy. This is why the Irish army is training Ukrainian soldiers in bomb disposal. Irish navy personnel are currently taking part in a NATO exercise in Greece and next year Irish soldiers will join NATO training in the USA.
So President Biden may be coming to say thanks to Ireland for being partly neutral and to commend even less neutrality. Welcome to an Ireland (or certainly an Irish government) preparing to go to war.
A bit far-fetched, you say, but the evidence suggests three factors are influencing Dublin’s policy: EU membership, the Ukraine war and Ireland’s dependence on US investment.
Ireland’s love affair with the EU has skewed public attitudes on neutrality. A recent poll showed that 70 per cent opposed Irish direct military aid to Ukraine. However, on another question, 70 per cent also approved the EU providing such assistance with Ireland supporting it.
Ireland has always recognised that EU membership would involve military participation. Seán Lemass said in 1962 that membership would require Ireland’s military involvement. Jack Lynch said in 1969 (while failing to defend northern nationalists) that Ireland would defend EU territories.
Supporters of the EU are aware of its military ambitions but instead they emphasise, for example, the EU’s funding of Ireland’s motorways. The real price of those roads is now becoming clear.
The humanitarian crisis of the war in Ukraine has given the government’s anti-neutrality campaign a timely boost. Ireland rightly opposed Putin’s invasion of Ukraine, but by re-fuelling US planes at Shannon it wrongly supported the US invasion of Iraq which killed an estimated 200,000.
There are over 900 US-related companies in Ireland, so it might be expected that the US would seek Irish support for its foreign policy. That policy has recently undergone a subtle change. America no longer engages in wars. It now presides over them.
For example, it is fighting Russia to the last drop of Ukrainian blood and it will now employ the German army as its force in Europe. (Guess who the Germans will recruit to help them?)
So will the forthcoming paddywhackery of a US President drinking Guinness in Dublin, or whatever, be a precursor to Ireland fighting US wars against Russia and China? Time will tell.
The Irish constitution does not mention neutrality. It merely refers to Ireland’s commitment to peace. It also says that the state may declare war with the Dáil’s assent, which leaves neutrality’s status open to lengthy legal debate.
Dublin’s mainstream media backs the government. Micheál Martin’s recent proposal to establish a forum on neutrality was described by RTÉ news not as an item on neutrality, but as “proposals on international security”.
Politically, Sinn Féin is still the most vocal supporter of neutrality, but its close EU/US links may require the party to temper its views.
If SF moves, we will have to re-write the republican ballad The Foggy Dew, which extols the virtues of fighting for Ireland in 1916, rather than John Redmond’s stance of fighting wars for foreign empires.
If neutrality is officially abandoned, the 1916 rebels will have lost in the long run. Like the First World War, unionists (in the British army) will fight alongside nationalists (in an EU army). So we will have a united Ireland after all – united in war under NATO.
A bit fanciful? Let’s listen to the mood music from the President and Dublin’s politicians during the visit.
