THERE isn’t much love lost between Sinn Féin and Fianna Fáil at the moment, but that could change after the next general election in the Republic, which must be held by February 20 2025 at the latest.
Potential developments after that contest are subject to frequent speculation, eg could they go into a coalition government together?
Meanwhile, a possible new dimension to the relationship between the two parties emerged last week when it was announced that Bertie Ahern had been re-admitted to membership of Fianna Fáil.
Although he resigned from the party under controversial circumstances 11 years ago, his name was still seen by many as “part of the brand”. This will be even more the case now that he has rejoined The Soldiers of Destiny, to give the English translation of the party's title.
Some observers are wondering if Bertie’s restoration might be followed by the former taoiseach running for the party he used to lead in the next presidential election of October 2025.
Could there be a race to become head of the Irish state between "The Bert", as he is sometimes called, and a Sinn Féin candidate such as Gerry Adams? That might not improve the chances of coalition between the two parties but it would certainly be a very interesting news story.
On the potential for coalition, I wrote in a column for this paper in January last year about a photograph which had appeared on the front pages of various Dublin-based newspapers.
It was taken at the funeral of Chris Wall, a close associate of the former taoiseach, and featured Sinn Féin leader Mary Lou McDonald in an embrace of sympathy with Mr Ahern. As I wrote at the time: "Possible political implications of the Mary Lou-Bertie encounter became the talk of the town."
Speculation about coalition continued, despite a quote from Mary Lou in the Irish Independent where she said: "Chris was our next-door neighbour and friend. Our families know each other very well. We loved him.”
As regards the current three-party coalition, Fianna Fáil leader Micheál Martin hasn't ruled out forming a government with Sinn Féin after the next general election and neither has Eamon Ryan, leader of the Greens, although he said: “They have to start taking the environmental agenda seriously.”
However, Fine Gael leader and current taoiseach Leo Varadkar has categorically rejected the prospect. Meanwhile, on the presidential front, Ahern has neither confirmed nor denied an interest in getting the job.
The timing of Ahern's re-admission to the Fianna Fáil fold must have been influenced to some extent by the imminence of the Belfast/Good Friday Agreement’s 25th anniversary on April 10.
He was of course a key player in the negotiations and some would say that himself and Tony Blair should have been included as recipients of the Nobel Peace Prize, which was presented to SDLP leader John Hume and his Ulster Unionist counterpart David Trimble in December 1998.
Ahern will no doubt be heaped with praise over the coming months for his peace process role and, if Fianna Fáil had still left him out in the cold, it might have been damaging to the party’s image.
As for the Irish presidential election, the last one in 2018 didn’t go too well for Sinn Féin, whose candidate Liadh Ní Riada came fourth with 93,987 votes, or 6.4 per cent of the total.
The incumbent, Michael D Higgins, secured a massive 822,566 first preferences or 55.8 per cent, with independent candidate Peter Casey causing a surprise when he came second with 342,727 votes or 23.3 per cent of the total while another independent, Seán Gallagher, came third with 94,514 votes.
Interestingly, Peter Casey is considering a second bid for the highest office in the land. In response to an inquiry from the present writer, he said: “I will decide later in the year whether or not I will stand.”
One of the issues he would be highlighting is illegal immigration, which he believes is a matter of concern to most Irish people: “We totally support helping Ukraine but we need to immediately remove the illegal migrants.”
He would also seek to give a greater voice to local communities: “I would commit to visiting every county council at least once a year to meet the councillors and listen to their local issues.”
No doubt if Ahern runs for president, memories will be revived of the Mahon Tribunal report issued in March 2012, which rejected his evidence in relation to a number of financial transactions. Responding in a statement, he said: “I have never accepted a bribe or a corrupt payment”.
Fianna Fáil officers were preparing a motion to expel him from the party, but he resigned in advance. Mind you, if Gerry Adams were to run, his critics and opponents would be raising other issues in relation to his history. The republican record of the late Martin McGuinness was challenged when he ran for president in 2011 but he still garnered 243,030 first preferences, coming in third place.
Closing on a lighter note, the return of Ahern to Fianna Fáil means we are likely to receive further instalments of "Bertie-speak", his very entertaining creativity with the English language.
Remember: “With hindsight, we all have 50/50 vision.” There’s the other famous one: “We shouldn’t upset the apple tart”?
And how can we forget the time he confused a Middle East meat dish with a political conspiracy: “There are kebabs out there plotting against us.”
