Opinion

Newton Emerson: Support for Good Friday Agreement is solid

Newton Emerson

Newton Emerson

Newton Emerson writes a twice-weekly column for The Irish News and is a regular commentator on current affairs on radio and television.

Former Prime Minister Tony Blair (right), US Senator George Mitchell (centre) and Taoiseach Bertie Ahern pictured after signing the Good Friday Agreement in 1998. Picture by Dan Chung/PA Wire
Former Prime Minister Tony Blair (right), US Senator George Mitchell (centre) and Taoiseach Bertie Ahern pictured after signing the Good Friday Agreement in 1998. Picture by Dan Chung/PA Wire Former Prime Minister Tony Blair (right), US Senator George Mitchell (centre) and Taoiseach Bertie Ahern pictured after signing the Good Friday Agreement in 1998. Picture by Dan Chung/PA Wire

SUPPORT for the Good Friday Agreement is remarkably solid, contrary to some dramatic interpretations of the latest LucidTalk poll.

The ‘No’ vote in 1998 was 29 per cent and LucidTalk’s ‘No’ result is 31 per cent, a difference within the poll’s margin of error.

There has been a drop in ‘Yes’ from 71 per cent in the referendum to 64 per cent in the poll. This is almost entirely due to the poll’s 5 per cent of ‘don’t knows’ – not many doubters, given the scale of political dysfunction in recent years. Nearly all the ‘don’t knows’ are unionists.

As one-fifth of the electorate did not vote in 1998 and ‘wouldn’t vote’ was not an option in the poll, it could be said support for the agreement is far higher than a quarter century ago. Certainly, comparing polls and referendums is more art than science.

The first headline result from the poll, commissioned by the Belfast Telegraph, found 54 per cent of unionists would vote No today. That reverses the estimated 56 per cent unionist vote for Yes in 1998.

It is clearly preferable to have the support of all communities for the agreement, even if it is not required for a simple majority. But ‘community’ is becoming a slippery concept for unionism in particular.

Since the referendum, the total vote for unionist parties and candidates has declined by 5 percentage points – unionist voters are becoming fewer at around the rate they are becoming stauncher.

It would be tempting to see this as a simple demographic process. The Protestant population is ageing and older people have lower levels of support for the agreement.

However, there has been no rise in the total nationalist vote. It is still at 40 per cent, with support for a united Ireland averaging below this across all polls. Support for the union is persistently higher than the total unionist vote.

This shows pro-union sentiment decoupling from ‘political unionism’ (a problematic term – ‘party political unionism’ would be better).

The 25th anniversary of the Good Friday Agreement will be marked in April
The 25th anniversary of the Good Friday Agreement will be marked in April The 25th anniversary of the Good Friday Agreement will be marked in April

If you are a supporter of both the union and the agreement but you do not vote for any unionist party, you are still a pro-agreement unionist. Unionist parties as a bloc do not own your constitutional position and no party can claim the agreement is failing just because the bloc is failing to win your vote. The TUV is really the only party that wants to make this claim.

Some republicans also apparently want to believe a majority of unionists oppose the agreement. This may have more to do with defaming opponents than trying to understand the subtle rise in doubts about the agreement and disaffection with unionist parties across the whole pro-union population.

Last year, Liverpool University and Queen’s University Belfast commissioned Ipsos Northern Ireland to conduct an in-depth analysis on public attitudes to institutional reform.

The research used a ‘deliberative forum’ – a representative panel of 46 people who heard expert presentations and then held discussions together and in smaller groups. This method, with its obvious parallel to a citizen’s assembly, is used to capture nuances beyond the binary outcome of a yes/no poll. It was funded by the Irish government and a summary can be read in the latest edition of Fortnight.

Former Prime Minister Tony Blair (right), US Senator George Mitchell (centre) and Taoiseach Bertie Ahern pictured after signing the Good Friday Agreement in 1998. Picture by Dan Chung/PA Wire
Former Prime Minister Tony Blair (right), US Senator George Mitchell (centre) and Taoiseach Bertie Ahern pictured after signing the Good Friday Agreement in 1998. Picture by Dan Chung/PA Wire Former Prime Minister Tony Blair (right), US Senator George Mitchell (centre) and Taoiseach Bertie Ahern pictured after signing the Good Friday Agreement in 1998. Picture by Dan Chung/PA Wire

The research found nationalist and unionist majority support for the agreement. Differences were of the glass half full versus glass half empty variety, with both sides finding common ground on the issue of reform.

As Queen’s researcher Jamie Pow summarised it online this week: “There aren’t many unionists who would want to keep the [agreement] as it is, but there also aren’t very many who want it removed. Similarly, while nationalists are more enthusiastic about keeping the [agreement] intact, many seek some reform.”

Participants expressed strong support for the principle of power-sharing. They wanted changes to stop Stormont collapsing but shied away from ideas of purely voluntary coalition: a cross-community executive is still seen as essential.

There was no consensus on the exact reforms required but a strong desire for public consultation on the decision, including another possible referendum. This conclusion was backed by 70 per cent of panellists, including majorities of unionists, nationalists and ‘others’.

Alliance’s position chimes most closely with these findings. It is proposing a quick tweak to the rules to prevent any one party collapsing the executive, followed by all-party talks on longer-term reform.

Constant reform is built into the agreement to ensure it maintains the support of all communities. Agreeing reform is where constructive efforts should lie.