MUST there be an assembly election in the coming months? The assumption has taken hold with remarkably little debate.
An election is required by law, yet the law – only passed in February this year – is being changed on the hoof.
Had it been enforced as originally intended we would be electing a new assembly three weeks from today at the latest. That deadline has already been pushed back twice to the middle of March and will certainly be pushed back again.
The law was supposed to create a mechanistic process sending parties back to the polls every nine months or so after a collapse, applying electoral pressure until they reached a deal or were marginalised.
This was a legitimate democratic approach but having immediately abandoned it, we are back in the realm of a purely political decision.
Part of the assumption for an election is that deals on the protocol and devolution are imminent and will require a fresh mandate.
However, there was no election when Stormont returned in January 2020, despite the protocol and the New Decade, New Approach deal both being signed the same month. That was after a three-year Stormont collapse, with the assembly more than half way through its mandate. We are only seven months into the current mandate.
Another large part of the assumption for an election is the council contest on May 18. Although it appears superficially convenient to have an assembly contest the same day, this clashes with the government’s overall timetable for a resolution.
Optimistic briefings from London envisage a protocol deal by mid-February – St Valentine’s Day has been mentioned – leaving enough time to restore Stormont for the 25th anniversary of the Good Friday Agreement on April 10, marked by a visit from US President Joe Biden.
That happens to be Easter Monday, when US presidents traditionally roll an egg down the White House lawn. We may hope Mr Biden has not been asked to do the same outside Stormont to celebrate its resurrection.
An election in May would usually require the assembly to rise just before Easter.
No doubt the executive parties could be reconvened for a photo-opportunity but pitting them straight back against each other in full campaign mode is hardly conducive to the stability of a freshly-restored institution.
The government also wants an international academic conference on Stormont reform to take place around the anniversary. This is important: reform is a pressing issue; the Agreement required such a conference 20 years ago but it was prevented by the first lengthy collapse of devolution.
Holding the conference in the middle of an election campaign would be absurd. Reform needs to be considered in a calm political environment, preferably with the next election years away.
Ultimately, the reason there was no election after New Decade, New Approach is that the DUP and Sinn Féin did not want one. They had both taken a hammering in the general election the month before and feared it would be repeated. The British and Irish governments, co-sponsors of the deal, were both happy to go along.
So who wants an election now?
There has been a widespread view since the last election in May that the DUP wants another trip to the polls to try regaining the top spot from Sinn Féin.
Boris Johnson’s government, which lasted until August, was disinclined to reward the DUP for collapsing Stormont because it would aggravate nationalists and because the DUP had aggravated the government – the party was meant to restore the assembly and executive by July, in return for the bill to disapply the protocol.
What has changed since then, apart from two more prime ministers, is polling showing Sinn Féin and the DUP would both gain support, with Sinn Féin retaining the top spot.
Both parties now have an incentive to want an election, using the race for first minister to crush their real rivals in the SDLP and the UUP and halt or reverse the Alliance surge. Both would presumably complain of a denial of democracy if an election is not called.
It could as easily be said the denial of democracy is setting May’s results aside to give the two largest parties another go at winning more seats. However, there is no sign of the government saying that – and if the DUP and Sinn Féin both want something, they tend to get it.
There is really no other reason why we seem bound for the polls in May.