Opinion

Patricia Mac Bride: Protecting British identity is major challenge on road to unity

Flag protests, pictured outside Belfast City Hall, and anti-protocol demonstrations in recent years have seen a reasonable number of people turning out Photo: Alan Lewis - PhotopressBelfast.co.uk
Flag protests, pictured outside Belfast City Hall, and anti-protocol demonstrations in recent years have seen a reasonable number of people turning out Photo: Alan Lewis - PhotopressBelfast.co.uk Flag protests, pictured outside Belfast City Hall, and anti-protocol demonstrations in recent years have seen a reasonable number of people turning out Photo: Alan Lewis - PhotopressBelfast.co.uk

Tuesday marked 100 years since the creation of the Irish Free State.

Exactly one year on from the signing of the contentious Anglo-Irish Treaty, the first step to partial independence from Britain was taken, even though it would take a further 27 years until the declaration of a republic.

It is interesting timing for the release of an opinion poll and focus group discussions by the Irish Times and Arins project on the prospect of Irish unity.

The central question was: “If there was a referendum asking people whether they wanted Northern Ireland to remain in the United Kingdom or to unify with the Republic of Ireland, how would you vote in that referendum?”

My first instinct is that it’s a question which supposes that the outcome of a vote against remaining within the UK is a vote for bolting two parts of the island together whilst scaling up what needs scaled up and rationalising that which can be streamlined. But that’s not an outcome that sits well with anyone I know who supports the ending of partition.

Much was made of the figure that 27 per cent of people in the north who expressed an opinion on the question supported unity whilst 50 per cent supported maintaining the link with Britain. It is interesting to note that whilst Sammy Wilson welcomed this as reinforcing the strength of the union, he stopped short of saying let’s have a border poll to prove it.

The fact that 27 per cent of people would vote on faith that what would emerge following a poll would be better than the status quo is significant. More significant is the 23 per cent who said they did not know or would not vote. What is also significant is that the connection between religious background and political outlook has shifted and we see that very clearly in terms of those who identify as neither from a Catholic or Protestant background. In that group, there is very little between the don’t knows and those who’d vote to remain in the union.

The Brexit effect inevitably means that people will be frightened to vote for the unknown. There was no vision of post-Brexit Britain and no blueprint for how to get there. Having endured six years of uncertainty, disruption, elections and being used as political pawns by British politicians, it really is unsurprising that people in the north might be reluctant to vote once again for the unknown.

That’s why the most interesting in this research is the focus groups and what has been emerging there. They provide a roadmap for politicians and campaigners alike to drive forward the next phase of discussions.

The people who took part very clearly articulated that they needed to know what the health service might look like in a new Ireland, with 50 per cent overall being more likely to vote for unity if the south of Ireland adopted an NHS-style health service. Whilst the NHS is a great idea in theory, the truth is that health outcomes and waiting lists are drastically worse in the north at this point in time. You may get free health care, alright, but you might be waiting three years to see a consultant. Surely a working NHS-type model is really what people aspire to?

Likewise, economic considerations such as pensions and taxes loomed large. No one wanted to pay more taxes, understandably, so clarity on inward investment, job creation and education and training all ties into this.

There is a role for an all-island citizen’s assembly in determining what the key pillars of a new society should be and for the Irish government to translate that into a White Paper. As the government that would be sovereign in a new Ireland, they have primary responsibility for setting out what it would look like.

One of the pressing matters to come out of this research is the need to address the issue of a border poll creating the potential of loyalist violence in the north. First of all, a poll will be called by a British secretary of state when they believe that a majority would vote to end the union. Are people suggesting that loyalists would take their anger out on the government they profess loyalty to?

Secondly there is a capacity issue. Flag protests and anti-protocol protests in the past number of years have seen a reasonable number of people turning out, but that has been sporadic and there is a huge difference between attending a rally and taking up arms. The old guard are too old and the younger generation haven’t known violent conflict. The PSNI would have a duty to arrest and send for prosecution those who break the law and it would be hard to see how any violence would be sustained in these circumstances.

The basis for the suggestion of violence is a fear over loss of identity. But those who are British will remain British and their home is and will remain here. Ensuring the protection of that identity on an island that is growing in its heritage, culture and diversity is the first and biggest challenge on the next leg of this journey.