Opinion

Deaglán de Bréadún: Poll on unity shows old stereotypes no longer apply

A poll for the Irish Times showed 50 per cent support for remaining in the United Kingdom among those surveyed in the north.
A poll for the Irish Times showed 50 per cent support for remaining in the United Kingdom among those surveyed in the north. A poll for the Irish Times showed 50 per cent support for remaining in the United Kingdom among those surveyed in the north.

CENSUS results published last September showed that 45.7 per cent of the population in the north are either Catholic or from a Catholic background, compared to 43.5 per cent who are Protestant or from other Christian denominations, the first time Catholics have outnumbered Protestants since the six-county statelet was established.

Catholics north of the border would traditionally have been presumed to support a united Ireland virtually en masse but it seems the old stereotypes no longer apply. Look at the results of a poll carried out by the Ipsos research company and published in last Saturday's Irish Times, which showed 50 per cent support for remaining in the United Kingdom among those surveyed in the north. The front page report said the level of northern support for Irish unity was a rather modest 26 per cent and that 21 per cent of Catholics wished to remain in the UK.

The fact that the status quo received almost twice the level of backing overall as the unity stance will be encouraging for unionists althought there would doubtless be a niggling concern that it isn't higher than 50 per cent. Another cause for unionist concern would be the proportion of don't knows in the north at 19 per cent (not to mention the five per cent who wouldn't vote at all.)

On August 21 last, it was reported that a LucidTalk survey for the Sunday Times had found that 48 per cent of those surveyed in the north would vote to remain part of the UK if a poll was held immediately, with 41 per cent opting for a united Ireland. The margin of seven per cent is of course more encouraging for nationalists than the Ipsos figure but still quite significant. Interestingly, we were informed by the same survey that 31 per cent of Alliance Party supporters had said they would vote for unity, with 26 per cent voting against.

Last week this column cited the argument that, to help accommodate concerns among unionists and the undecided, a united Ireland should rejoin the Commonwealth, a body that has no legislative authority over its 56 member-states, 36 of which are republics. Although King Charles is its current head, the position is not an hereditary one.

There was mixed reaction to the idea since, with comment from the favourable side that Commonwealth membership would enhance Ireland’s international trade without incurring the level of obligations required by European Union membership and, from the negative camp, that it would be harking back to the days of the British Empire.

Interestingly, the Ipsos poll in the north found that a net figure of nine per cent of those surveyed would be more likely to vote for a united Ireland if it would also be part of the Commonwealth and that the figure among Protestant voters would be 14 per cent. The reaction was quite different among southern respondents with a net figure of 41 per cent stating that, if such a proposal were on the table, a yes vote would be less likely. The inevitable conclusion is that a fair number of southern nationalists need to realise that achieving a majority for Irish unity is not like selling ice-cream on a hot summer’s day.

It seems reasonable to say that the symbolism of Commonwealth membership would not be as hard for nationalists to swallow as suffering defeat in a border poll in the north and having to face up to the fact that, under the terms of the Belfast/Good Friday Agreement, a further vote couldn’t be held for at least another seven years.

Another and rather more significant issue in a northern vote would be the prospect that, in the event of majority approval for unity in each of the two referendums north and south, the north would automatically become part of the EU, just as East Germany did when it reunited with the west of the country. In April 2017, European leaders gave a commitment unanimously at a summit meeting in Brussels that the north could rejoin the EU as part of a united Ireland.

Given the turmoil over Brexit, that could be a very attractive proposition for a good many northern voters although the present situation where you can trade freely from the north to the EU and the rest of the UK must be a money-spinner for some businesses. Ironically, the more republican wing of southern Irish politics has a history of Euro-scepticism although that has declined in more recent times. If the EU turned out to be a lever for achieving a united Ireland, then we can expect to hear the reference in the 1916 Proclamation of the Irish Republic to “gallant allies in Europe” being repeated more than once.

Email: Ddebre1@aol.com; Twitter: @DdeBreadun