Opinion

Deaglán de Bréadún: Rejoining Commonwealth could allay unionist concerns on united Ireland

MEDALS: From left, Team NI gymnasts Rhys McClenaghan who won a silver medal, Ewan McAteer and Eamon Montgomery at the Commonwealth Games in Birmingham with Communities Minister Deirdre Hargey
MEDALS: From left, Team NI gymnasts Rhys McClenaghan who won a silver medal, Ewan McAteer and Eamon Montgomery at the Commonwealth Games in Birmingham with Communities Minister Deirdre Hargey MEDALS: From left, Team NI gymnasts Rhys McClenaghan who won a silver medal, Ewan McAteer and Eamon Montgomery at the Commonwealth Games in Birmingham with Communities Minister Deirdre Hargey

IT is always gratifying to discover that a highly-respected academic broadly concurs with one’s own thinking on a particular subject.

A good example which I came across lately was from a Canadian newspaper, The Globe and Mail, where Professor John McGarry of Queen’s University - in Ontario, not Belfast - reviewed a book by Professor Brendan O’Leary, titled Making Sense of a United Ireland: Should it happen? How might it happen?

I look forward to getting hold of the book itself, which is published by Sandycove and has also received attention nearer home. The reviewer tells us Professor O’Leary believes that, within the current decade, dual referendums on Irish unity will probably be held north and south. The crucial vote in the north will come from outside the traditional unionist and nationalist blocs, and the review continues: “That pivotal middle group is shifting toward support for Irish unity because of Brexit, the dramatic and increasing prosperity of the Republic of Ireland and the latter’s embrace of secularism and liberalism over Catholic conservatism.”

A majority for unity on both sides of the border could of course provoke a violent reaction from loyalists. In addition to any security response however, nationalists should seek to accommodate unionist concerns. The review tells us O’Leary suggests that one way to do this would be an offer to retain an autonomous Northern Ireland with its power-sharing institutions, within a united Ireland. In this scenario, there would be a simple switch of sovereignty from London to Dublin. With or without such a regional administration, unionists could be offered guaranteed power-sharing provisions in Dublin.

Symbolic changes to the national anthem and the flag would be needed to make them more widely acceptable (even though the Irish tricolour is meant to symbolise peace between orange and green). The example of Germany shows that a united country can be recreated in a peaceful manner.

The book argues that a united Ireland should rejoin the Commonwealth. There would be no implications for sovereignty, since it is a body without any legislative authority over its members. But such a move could help to allay unionist concerns. At the 2018 Heads of Government meeting, it was declared that Prince Charles would be the next head of the Commonwealth after the death of Queen Elizabeth, but the role is not hereditary and he could be succeeded by a non-royal.

As of last June, 36 of the 56 member-states are republics. Its most attractive feature is probably the Commonwealth Games. When these were held last summer in Birmingham, Northern Ireland won seven gold medals (five of them in boxing), which was its highest number ever, as well as seven silver and four bronze.

The review continues that the book strongly favours retaining the simple majority (50 per cent plus one) in each of the referendums, north and south. It has been argued in some quarters that a weighted majority should be required in the north, but nationalists can point out that having separate votes and requiring separate majorities in each of the two regions regions is a concession to unionists.

It is pretty inevitable that the push for dual referendums on Irish unity will be greatly increased if Sinn Féin becomes a party of government in Dublin. For some time now, opinion polls have indicated that this is a strong possibility after the next general election. It was interesting in that context to read last Sunday’s Red C poll in the Business Post which showed a decline of four points for Sinn Féin, from 35 to 31 per cent, since the previous survey in that particular newspaper.

The decline is generally being attributed to a widely-reported court case where recordings have been played, over several days, of conversations that former Sinn Féin Dublin City Councillor Jonathan Dowdall had with Gerard Hutch (59), of The Paddocks in Clontarf, Dublin, who has pleaded not guilty to the murder of David Byrne at Dublin’s Regency Hotel on February 5, 2016. The chief executive of Red C Research, Richard Colwell, points out in an analysis piece for the Business Post that Sinn Féin still remains “the most supported party by some distance”, but he adds that “the exceptionally high levels seen in recent months may not be sustainable in the run-up to the election”

In the same Red C poll, Fine Gael went up three points to 24 per cent, partly reflecting the fact that the survey was carried out in the aftermath of the recent FG party conference (it is unlikely to be an indication that Sinn Féin voters are switching over to Fine Gael.) An interesting feature of southern opinion polls in general is that, despite serious discontent among the public at the housing shortage and the problems with the health service, left-wing parties such as Labour, the Social Democrats and People Before Profit are still stuck at three or four per cent.

Discontent with the government’s performance on these issues has exclusively benefited Sinn Féin.

Email: Ddebre1@aol.com; Twitter: @DdeBreadun