The national identity question on last year’s census form was quite straightforward.
How would you describe your national identity (Tick all that apply): British, Irish, Northern Irish, English, Scottish, Welsh or Other (which you had to write into a box). I ticked British. British only. I would have preferred to have placed my tick beside a UK citizen box, but that option wasn’t available. And I’m fairly sure, too, that everyone else who ticked the British only box would vote to remain in the United Kingdom in the event of a border poll (which I still think is more likely than not within a decade).
I’m also fairly sure that those who placed their tick beside the Irish only option would vote in favour of a united Ireland. Let’s be honest, it would seem strange (although strange is an everyday part of local politics) to emphasise your identity—your constitutional preference—by ticking just the British or Irish box and then not being so sure when it came to a border poll decision. In other words, while certainly not a bankable assumption (a lot can happen in ten years, obviously) it still strikes me as a fairly safe assumption that those who identity themselves as British only or Irish only would vote that way in a border poll.
But after that assumption it becomes more difficult. For example, what are we to make of someone who ticks the British and Northern Irish boxes? Are we to assume that they’d be more likely to prefer Northern Ireland to remain within the UK; or is it fair to wonder if they’d be open to persuasion? I’m not even sure what a Northern Irish identity is supposed to be: is it some sort of limbo status between Great Britain and the Republic of Ireland? Because if that’s what it is, then it might be better to see it as a muggle identity (apologies to Harry Potter fans) rather that UK pureblood (further apologies). In that case it can’t be assumed their border poll votes could be safely banked for one side or the other.
The same problem arises with those who tick the Irish and Northern Irish boxes. Since they haven’t mentioned British is it logical to assume they’d prefer Irish unity to the constitutional status quo? If so, then why didn’t they just tick the Irish only box? And if the Northern Irish part of their identity matters to them—and they ticked the box, after all—would they prefer Northern Ireland within the UK, or some sort of NI identity protected and accommodated within a united Ireland?
As for those who ticked the British and Irish boxes; or the British, Irish and Northern Irish boxes (a sort of John Hewitt smorgasbord identity crisis), what are we too make of their likely preference in a border poll? Or the 113,400 ‘other national identities’ including the 23,900 Polish only, 11,900 Lithuanian only and 42,600 smaller national identity groupings? Can we make assumptions about their voting intentions in a border poll? I’ve already heard some unionists suggest that the fact they came to live in part of the UK means it’s more likely they’d vote for the status quo rather than Irish unity. I can see the reasoning behind their thinking—but how accurate is it?
The third biggest bloc (almost 20 per cent) is those who ticked only the Northern Irish identity box. They will be key to the outcome of a border poll. But, as I mentioned earlier, I have no idea what is actually meant by the Northern Irish identity, particularly when it is used in isolation. When the border poll comes the choice will be between a united Ireland or the United Kingdom. An independent Northern Ireland will not be an option.
Those who ticked the Northern Irish only identity are not the same as those who opted for the joint identity of British/Northern Irish or Irish/Northern Irish, which means that they have a slightly different view of both GB and the Republic. So, should we assume that they are persuadable or biddable by both the pro-union and the Irish-unity lobbies? And, if so, what are the key demands which will determine how they cast their vote? I don’t know. And nobody will really know until a border poll is called: with the socio/political/economic circumstances at the time also playing a huge part.
It is the uncertainty underlying the figures which creates a problem for the secretary of state when it comes to calling a border poll—which is in his gift to call. One interpretation of the census figures on religion/passports/identity could lead to one reasonable conclusion; while another interpretation could lead to a similarly reasonable conclusion. Yet when you add recent electoral and polling evidence into the mix it is undeniable that incredibly significant change is under way in Northern Ireland.
Whether this all adds up to a ‘likely’ win for the united-Ireland lobby I cannot say. But I can understand the call for clarity on the specific terms and conditions under which a border poll can be called. And, for what it’s worth, I think that clarity will emerge much sooner than expected.
