Opinion

Patrick Murphy: Time for Jeffrey Donaldson to play his wild card

Patrick Murphy

Patrick Murphy

Patrick Murphy is an Irish News columnist and former director of Belfast Institute for Further and Higher Education.

DUP leader Sir Jeffrey Donaldson Photo: Kirsty O'Connor/PA Wire.
DUP leader Sir Jeffrey Donaldson Photo: Kirsty O'Connor/PA Wire. DUP leader Sir Jeffrey Donaldson Photo: Kirsty O'Connor/PA Wire.

How good a poker player is Jeffrey Donaldson?

He had better be good, because he is engaged in a high stakes game of political poker which, if he loses, will end his political career, cripple the DUP and significantly damage unionism.

The problem facing Jeffrey is that he has been dealt a bad hand. The protocol agreement between Britain and the EU makes the north semi-detached from the UK, thereby undermining unionism’s fundamental principle.

The bad hand was dealt by Arlene Foster, who did not spot the Dublin government’s change of policy when Leo Varadkar became taoiseach, a year after Brexit. His predecessor, Enda Kenny, had instructed Irish civil servants to co-operate with northern and British civil servants to facilitate post Brexit, cross-border trade.

Varadkar ended that co-operation and switched Dublin into a confrontational mode with Britain and, of course, unionism. More loyal to the EU than Ireland, he began using the north to punish Britain for Brexit. While the DUP were still celebrating Brexit, the ground was moving beneath their feet.

Varadkar’s policy switch ultimately led to the protocol. So by the time Jeffrey joined the game, not only had he the worst cards, every other player knew how bad they were. So he played his only ace: he withdrew the DUP from Stormont while the protocol exists.

The chances of the protocol completely disappearing are slim. Liz Truss is strongly anti-protocol, but she too has a weak hand. Having been promoted well above her ability (her New York interview was more like a satirical sketch) she has already been dismissed as a lightweight by the Biden administration.

The absence of a UK-US trade agreement is no big deal, but a good poker player would tell Biden that without it, why should she re-think the protocol and why should she support America’s war with Russia in Ukraine? She lacks the instinct and the ability to do either.

Meanwhile, the House of Lords may delay or possibly scupper the bill which dismantles the protocol, even though it has been approved by the Commons. Jeffrey needs that law to be passed, or for the EU and UK to reach agreement on something similar.

So should he stay outside Stormont, or accept a watered down protocol? Remaining outside will mean another election, which will just be an exercise in belligerent sectarianism (with added census triumphalism). The DUP would still probably be Stormont’s second largest party.

Accepting a watered down protocol would leave him sitting in the Lords with Arlene Foster. He was cheered in Hillsborough during the King’s visit, so unionists think he is doing something right.

Sinn Féin wrongly claims that the DUP’s absence from Stormont is denying us government help with the cost of living crisis. Stormont can do nothing about the crisis. It is merely a constitutional ornament which has little relevance to the everyday lives of ordinary people. We are no worse off without it.

So what should Jeffrey do? Oddly, the answer lies in Dublin. Micheál Martin and Liz Truss appear to get on well. If they could reach agreement on the protocol, the EU and US could hardly reject a British-Irish deal.

This column first suggested this solution five years ago, but Varadkar, Sinn Féin, and the SDLP, believed confrontation would achieve a united Ireland. All they did was antagonise unionism, leaving unity further away than ever.

Unlike Varadkar, Martin is aware of unionist sensibilities. So Jeffrey should play his wild card by meeting him to urge a British-Irish agreement on post-Brexit trade. Varadkar becomes taoiseach again in December, so it is important to seal a deal before then.

A solution to the protocol would top Martin’s political career, even to the point of making him a candidate for president.

So far Jeffrey does not appear to have noticed that he has a wild card. If he does not play it soon, we will know that he just can’t play poker.