Opinion

Chris Donnelly: Sinn Féin and SDLP must improve transfer rates

A failure of to transfer votes between the two nationalist parties led by Michelle O'Neill and Colum Eastwood could allow DUP and TUV candidate to secure some seats. Picture by Hugh Russell
A failure of to transfer votes between the two nationalist parties led by Michelle O'Neill and Colum Eastwood could allow DUP and TUV candidate to secure some seats. Picture by Hugh Russell A failure of to transfer votes between the two nationalist parties led by Michelle O'Neill and Colum Eastwood could allow DUP and TUV candidate to secure some seats. Picture by Hugh Russell

IN 10 days we go to the polls after what has been, to date, a relatively quiet election campaign.

The race for First Minister has been the main theme promoted by the DUP as it seeks to persuade disillusioned unionist voters to forgive them their past transgressions and remain loyal.

The DUP’s failure to signal a willingness to re-enter the Executive if a nationalist wins that race has added fuel to that particular story, galvanising support amongst nationalists for Sinn Féin.

Meanwhile, all of the parties outside of the DUP have been majoring on their priority policies to help people get through the cost of living crisis now engulfing our most vulnerable households.

The SDLP are hoping to build on their last electoral outing in 2019, when Claire Hanna and Colum Eastwood delivered stunning majority victories to reclaim two of the three Westminster seats the party had held between 2005 and 2017.

The last Assembly election was a relatively good one for the SDLP, returning with the same number of seats (12) they’d entered the election, representing a net gain given the reduction in overall seats from 108 to 90.

The SDLP’s struggle continues to be about finding a way to mark out its own space as a pro-Irish unity party but with considerable centre-ground appeal on account of its substantive focus on a broad range of bread and butter issues.

No-one in the party is credibly making the case any more that they can challenge Sinn Féin for the mantle of lead voice and party within nationalism, and the polling to date seems to confirm why that has been a wise decision.

Outside of the nationalist citadel of Foyle, where they are targeting a gain from a depleted and bruised Sinn Féin team, the SDLP’s energies have been on attracting support from within the broadening constituency of fluid voters who are open to more readily shifting their voting preference due to sentiments and policies they hear and read about which signal a desire to address issues of concern beyond identity and constitutional affairs.

In a Naomi Long-led Alliance Party, Colum Eastwood and his colleagues have had their work cut out in retaining the support of a section of the pro-unity constituency drawn to the Alliance leader’s engaging and steadfast approach over the years, not least in the face of sometimes violent opposition from loyalism.

Just as unionism’s incessant demonizing of Sinn Féin helped the latter party consolidate support at the SDLP’s expense in the past, so has the vilification of Alliance – and manner in which it has been handled – helped shift some SDLP voters out of their traditional voting camp.

In the other direction, Eastwood’s party has been squeezed further by a Sinn Féin buoyed by its popularity in the Republic and renewed sense of urgency in planning for constitutional change amidst a post-Brexit era defined by continuing upheaval and uncertainty.

Yet the role played by the SDLP in our politics remains invaluable, not least for those genuinely interested in attaining the objective of a united Ireland.

The SDLP’s success in securing the election of Pat Catney in Lagan Valley in 2017 illustrated the party’s ability to attract support across the communal divide to wrestle a seat otherwise destined for the DUP in a manner that remains simply beyond Sinn Féin.

In next week’s contest, nationalist voters know that only SDLP candidates stand a chance of getting elected in Strangford, where the very impressive Conor Houston is on the ballot paper, and in Lagan Valley, as the effervescent Catney seeks to retain his seat in the face of unionist challengers, including a TUV candidate.

In South Antrim, hopes for returning a second nationalist seat to compliment the seat destined to be won by Sinn Féin’s Declan Kearney rest on SDLP’s Roisin Lynch. Helping both candidates get across the line could prove crucial to Sinn Féin securing the First Minister’s seat.

Similarly, with John O’Dowd almost certain to be elected, the contest in Upper Bann for the final seat could be between whoever is left standing between Sinn Féin’s Liam Mackle and SDLP’s Dolores Kelly versus the DUP’s Diane Dodds.

In the past, many Sinn Féin voters have refused to transfer beyond party candidates whilst SDLP voters have also been reluctant to transfer to Sinn Féin. A failure to improve transfer rates between the two parties in this election would actively promote the prospect of DUP and even TUV candidates securing election in many constituencies.

For voters weary of the DUP’s antagonistic politics and determined to provide a response to unionist leaders’ continuing refusal to indicate a willingness to serve in an Executive led by a nationalist First Minister, transferring votes effectively between the two nationalist parties – and on to other progressive parties – will prove decisive to giving them the answer their words and actions warrant.