Opinion

Patricia Mac Bride: Non-voters a problem for all parties

Doug Beattie said that 75 per cent of those who don’t vote are unionist and if they can just get those people out to vote, then it’ll all be OK. But that data doesn’t stack up. Picture: Hugh Russell
Doug Beattie said that 75 per cent of those who don’t vote are unionist and if they can just get those people out to vote, then it’ll all be OK. But that data doesn’t stack up. Picture: Hugh Russell Doug Beattie said that 75 per cent of those who don’t vote are unionist and if they can just get those people out to vote, then it’ll all be OK. But that data doesn’t stack up. Picture: Hugh Russell

I’ve been invited to a wedding next month but there’s a bit of a problem because I’m not sure the couple are actually going to live together after the ceremony.

From what I understand, one half of the couple is contemplating continuing to live with their mother indefinitely. The other half most certainly wants to move in together but they are in love with someone else and plan on leaving the relationship in around ten years or so when their first love comes back to them.

Won’t somebody please think of the children?

If you were invited to an event such as this, would you go? I’d say there might be a fairly even split between those who’d go just for the spectacle and those for whom it would be a hard avoid.

It might sound like a bad Hollywood romcom, but it’s not unlike what the electorate are being asked to do in the assembly elections on May 5.

It may go some way to explaining why people aren’t voting. According to the Nisra mid-year population estimates on June 30 last, there are around 1.467 million adults in the north. The Electoral Office figures for the total electorate is 1.368 million as of April 1 this year. So that means there are close to 100,000 not even on the register.

In the 2017 assembly elections the average turnout across all constituencies was 64.78 per cent so if that figure was replicated next month, it would mean around 480,000 people aren’t engaged at all in the political process here. That is a problem for every single political party.

It is interesting to note the different approaches of the two largest unionist parties. At their campaign launch on Monday, Jeffrey Donaldson revisited the familiar DUP tactic of fear of a Sinn Féin first minister. He said: “If Sinn Féin wins the most seats in this election, then Northern Ireland will face months and years of arguing and fighting about a divisive border poll rather than fixing our health service and focusing on rebuilding and growing our economy.”

Meanwhile Mary Lou McDonald was setting out her party’s stall, saying that “the big priority for Sinn Féin after this election is to get back to work quickly so that the executive can get money into people’s pockets to help with the rising cost of living and to provide badly needed investment in our health services.”

No mention of a border poll there, Jeffrey.

Doug Beattie’s response to the DUP launch was as cutting as it was confident. He accused the DUP of trading on fear whilst pledging that the UUP would focus on hope in order to attract younger voters and re-energise unionism. It’s a good message, but a hard sell.

Both parties know they need to get out the vote if they have any hope of retaining unionism as the largest designation in the assembly and have a shot at retaining the meaningless-in-practice title of first minister.

Doug Beattie said in an interview that 75 per cent of those who don’t vote are unionist and his message is that if they can just get those people out to vote, then it’ll all be OK. But that data doesn’t stack up. The figure is conjecture based on a response to a survey carried out in 2019 in which 75 per cent of the 31 per cent of respondents who were non-voters expressed a preference to remain as part of the UK in a border poll.

The mental gymnastics involved in arriving at the 75 per cent figure, dear reader, meant I had to write that paragraph as many times as you have just read it.

It isn’t just unionism that will be looking to maximise turnout at this election. Sinn Féin is fielding 34 candidates and the SDLP 22 in an effort to at least retain the 38 seats held between the two parties.

With opinion polls showing a growth in support for Alliance, the SDLP would have to think it would be more at risk than Sinn Féin to losing votes to them, so first preference votes will matter.

As has always been the case, Sinn Féin will tightly manage its vote in order to get multiple candidates elected in constituencies where it has more than one quota. But the party will be equally aware that it needs to attract new voters in order to not lose seats to the SDLP in constituencies where it may be vulnerable, such as Foyle.

For the Green Party and Alliance, the challenge is to get the people who say in the opinion polls that they will vote for them to actually get out and do so on the day. Having copped themselves on, Alliance will now have to do that without bussed-in free labour.

But when all of this is over, the question remains whether or not we will all gather in the Great Hall to witness the first dance, aka the nomination of an executive.

I, for one, will be going along in the hope that we do.