Opinion

Newton Emerson: UUP must take a gamble over the protocol

Newton Emerson

Newton Emerson

Newton Emerson writes a twice-weekly column for The Irish News and is a regular commentator on current affairs on radio and television.

Ulster Unionist MLA Doug Beattie. Picture Mal McCann.
Ulster Unionist MLA Doug Beattie. Picture Mal McCann. Ulster Unionist MLA Doug Beattie. Picture Mal McCann.

One hope for the new UUP leader, presumed to be Doug Beattie, is that Alliance will stumble and put a large number of centre-ground unionist voters back up for grabs.

An Alliance stumble is usually imagined as the party taking too clear a line on the constitutional question. Opponents often try to ‘force it off the fence’, to use their cheap expression, but Alliance has half a century of experience avoiding that trap and most voters can see the cynicism of those trying to lay it.

The party’s surge is likelier to end through self-inflicted errors. Last month it published Green New Deal, a complete set of left-wing social and economic policies within an environmental framework. This might be the future of mainstream politics. Greens are topping the polls in Germany and beginning to beat Labour in southern England. However, the Green Party remains a tiny force in Northern Ireland. Alliance could be over-sensitive about competing with it for young voters in Belfast or of having a ‘non-designated’ rival in general.

Alliance supporters were traditionally middle-class and suburban. They have been joined by progressive, even radical urbanites in an odd agglomeration - the real ‘alliance’ within Alliance and one that could easily fracture, just as the DUP’s vote is splitting to Alliance and the TUV.

These are not words of comfort for the UUP. The lesson from Green New Deal is that Alliance is not simply sitting on the fence, gathering discontented voters by default. It continues to take major positioning risks to retain and grow its support, even where that might alienate its base. Liberalising an essentially conservative party, seen as a particular challenge for the UUP, is one Alliance has so far successfully managed.

The UUP can claim to have taken plenty of risks over the past decade, from its link-up with the Tories to its move into Stormont opposition. The fact this did not arrest its decline only means it must go further.

Beattie has already shown liberal daring on social issues: he proposed the ban on gay conversion therapy that helped sink Arlene Foster.

This week, he has been finessing the UUP’s recent wobble against Irish language legislation, saying he supports Irish and only has concerns over rows about bilingual signage in residential areas.

Alliance has had the same position for years but fumbled it this year with conflicting stances at Belfast and Lisburn councils.

Ultimately, this is minor manoeuvring. The big gamble the UUP needs to take to move out of the DUP’s shadow is to adopt a pragmatic approach to the Northern Ireland Protocol.

The UUP might consider that electoral poison, with polls showing the vast majority of unionist voters opposed to the sea border. Yet significant numbers of unionists are still switching to Alliance, either because they can live with its enthusiasm for the protocol or because they actively welcome some Brexit realism.

There is a huge unionist electoral space between the DUP’s Europhobia and Alliance’s Europhilia, perfect for the four in ten unionists who voted remain plus everyone else who accepts the protocol or something like it is unavoidable - a group that includes many loyalists. The UUP would risk losing support with this stance but its alternative is continued decline, while the DUP inevitably returns to accepting the protocol.

The UUP’s official aim must be to become the largest unionist party with the broadest possible appeal to the unionist electorate.

Realistically, it needs to present itself as valuable despite ranking fourth or fifth at Stormont. Giving unionist voters a meaningful choice and holding the DUP to account are credible roles. Returning to opposition will certainly be considered. The concept of joint opposition and offering an alternative executive must also be revisited.

Former UUP leader Mike Nesbitt resigned in 2017 after his “Vote Mike, Get Colum” pitch of a joint opposition was seen as a failure. In truth it was never tested, as SDLP leader Colum Eastwood did not reciprocate and the 2017 election was atypical due to the collapse of Stormont. The Alliance surge, which began in that election, is a chance to try again.

If Alliance becomes the second or third-largest party there will be increased pressure to reform mandatory coalition - a long-standing Alliance demand. Any reforms will need cross-community support, which the UUP can offer from unionism.

‘Vote Doug, Get Colum and Naomi’ could the UUP’s next and final roll of the dice.

Beattie may want avoid that exact expression.