Opinion

Alex Kane: Unfortunately, most of the problems we had in 2018 will be there in 2019

Alex Kane

Alex Kane

Alex Kane is an Irish News columnist and political commentator and a former director of communications for the Ulster Unionist Party.

The Brexit puzzle will continue to perplex next year
The Brexit puzzle will continue to perplex next year The Brexit puzzle will continue to perplex next year

My goodness me, it's been a weird year: the sort of year which is manna for freelance columnists and commentators, yet the sort of year you'd like to say goodbye to, safe in the knowledge that it was just a blip.

But it looks like most of the problems we faced are still here and unlikely to be unresolved any time soon.

Take devolution as an example. Last January I wrote in the Irish News: 'Four months away from the 20th anniversary of the GFA - and with little prospect of a genuine, credible deal to save and strengthen it - it strikes me as the moment to acknowledge that the GFA is, to all intents and purposes, dead. The beep-beep-beep noise in the background is simply the sound of the life support machine.'

Almost a year on and I wouldn't change a word of that. There isn't any evidence of the DUP and SF being able to negotiate their way out of the impasse and nor is there much evidence of their support bases being keen for them to reach a compromise.

The RHI saga - which must surely be a candidate for a nomination in the annual soap opera awards - rolled on and on and on; each new day of evidence accompanied by the sound of jaws hitting the floor. When it began most of us assumed that it would shine a light on low-level, fairly minor incompetency and stupidities, from which lessons could be learned and future mistakes avoided. If only!

We discovered that the DUP made the Borgia family look like a slightly naughty offshoot of the Pollyanna clan.

We discovered that bad habits and governance flaws were probably not confined to just one 'rogue department.'

We discovered that there was a hidden and unaccountable layer of government - the Spadocracy.

We discovered that the civil service in Northern Ireland seems to be an independent body, making up its own rules and precedents.

We discovered that the average five-year-old was better at paper trails. We discovered that our political/governing classes had the organisational skills of a drunk monkey.

Quite how we recover and rebuild from this industrial scale chaos is anyone's guess. One thing is certain though: the present model for devolution is unworkable. Trying to reboot the Assembly (and talks are earmarked for early January) without first sorting out the nitty-gritty structures of administration would be downright stupid.

Having not had a clue what Theresa May meant when she stated, shortly after she became prime minister, that "Brexit means Brexit," we finally discovered what she did mean. Nothing. She was, quite simply, working from the Humpty Dumpty script: "When I use a word, it means just what I choose it to mean - neither more nor less."

Now on her third Brexit cabinet minister and her 22nd refinement of what her Withdrawal Agreement entails, there is every likelihood she'll be out of Downing Street fairly soon. Quite remarkably, she has managed to leave a bigger mess than the mess she inherited from David Cameron.

For the DUP 2018 was a very difficult year - collapse of talks in February and 'betrayal' by May in November. Quite why they believed it was worth putting all their eggs into the one Conservative basket is beyond me.

In March 1972, when Edward Heath prorogued the old NI Parliament, it was Ian Paisley who said: "Have we learned nothing from what Lord Carson said about the Conservatives?"

For almost 50 years unionist leaders have accused one Conservative PM after another of betrayal: Heath, Thatcher, Major, Cameron and now May. And yet, time after time, they try and cut a deal with them. When will they learn that the survival of the Union shouldn't be left in the hands of a national government which will always have bigger national priorities to think of?

The DUP should focus on securing the majority in Northern Ireland; and that means focusing on NI rather than deluding themselves that they are of any particular, long term interest to May, Johnson, Rees-Mogg et al. They aren't. They never will be.

But the most worrying story of all from Northern Ireland this year is the fact that our health and education services are crumbling around our ears. It's too easy to say that the blame can be attributed to a lack of money and the absence of a functioning executive. It goes deeper than that. Between 2007 and 2016, when there was an Assembly and executive, very little was done to either recognise let alone address the scale of the problems.

Decisions were avoided, reports ignored and overhauls postponed. And people wonder why I'm not cheerleading for the return of devolution.

It's going to be a long time before we escape from the entrails of 2018: if, indeed, we ever do. So let's end on an upbeat note. Whatever happens on the political front I hope that 2019 will be good to you.

Happy new year and thanks for visiting me every Friday. I really do appreciate it.