A vote of confidence in Prime Minister Theresa May has left her wounded yet more secure for the duration of the Brexit withdrawal process, thanks to a Conservative Party rule forbidding another leadership challenge for a year. So the DUP is stuck with her, while still wanting rid of her Withdrawal Agreement. Hence the strangulated statements from DUP leader Arlene Foster that May does not have to go and her future is a matter for the Tories alone. This follows a month of Foster and DUP colleagues highlighting that their confidence and supply deal is with the Conservatives, not with May, implying they would conspire to topple her.
They could still try to do so - talks have reportedly been held with Labour on a confidence vote in the Commons against May’s government.
The increasing sight of Tories raging at the DUP’s impertinence should give unionists and republicans pause for thought, albeit for different reasons.
Republicans might also enjoy the DUP plotting to replace another party’s leader, having insisted Sinn Féin had no business demanding Foster’s resignation over RHI.
**
The DUP has joined forces with former Brexit secretaries David Davis and Dominic Raab to launch an alternative withdrawal agreement, mainly focused on a new Northern Ireland backstop. The campaign is entitled ‘A Better Deal’ - an apparently accidental echo of the DUP’s anti-Good Friday Agreement slogan ‘it’s time for a new deal’. As in that campaign, the DUP should read the small print carefully. The Better Deal document, drawn up by a former adviser to trade secretary Liam Fox, a Dutch customs expert and an international trade lawyer, proposes a 10-year extendible backstop to keep the Irish border open while new procedures and technologies are developed for a permanent solution.
How sure is the DUP this is not just pushing the problem back a decade until a border poll might solve it for good?
**
Fianna Fáil has extended its confidence and supply deal with Fine Gael until 2020 to ensure political continuity through the Brexit process. This has been optimistically reported in London as giving the Irish government room to compromise on the backstop, now it need not fear an imminent election. In that spirit of seeing developments in Dublin entirely through the prism of your own parochial concerns, there must also be implications for Stormont. Sinn Féin has been locked out of office in the Republic for another two years, which taken together with its Westminster abstentionism and the collapse of devolution makes the second largest party on the island of Ireland look like a chocolate teapot. Something has to give and a return to Stormont is the easiest option.
Party president Mary Lou McDonald tried to criticise Fianna Fáil’s extension announcement by saying “you can’t be in government and opposition at the same time.”
She must not have been paying much attention when Sinn Féin was at Stormont.
**
The true extent of Irish solidarity on the backstop has been strikingly demonstrated by the Office of the Press Ombudsman of Ireland.
Dan O’Brien, a newspaper columnist and economist at a pro-EU think-tank, had a calmly-argued piece in the Irish Independent questioning if the backstop demand might prove counterproductive to Ireland’s interests.
The Ombudsman’s office felt moved to tweet what it called this “challenging comment” to demonstrate the importance of expressing views contrary to “consensus”.
In other words: ‘isn’t it great to live in a country where you can read something this outrageous?’
**
The average minimum sentence handed down last year for murder in Northern Ireland was 11 years - nearly half the 21 year average in England and Wales, according to figures obtained by the BBC.
The office of the Lord Chief Justice has pointed out there are relatively few murder trials in Northern Ireland, so the annual average here varies enormously - it was 15 years in 2013, for example.
While this is true, the 11-year figure is more typical and Northern Ireland’s courts also issue shorter sentences for manslaughter.
The lack of a Sentencing Guidelines Council in Northern Ireland, unlike in England and Wales, is an obvious explanation. However, our judges often refer to those guidelines - they just do not apply them as firmly. In the absence of any legal explanation, it must be asked if this is a legacy of the Troubles.
**
Ian Paisley has the luck of the devil. A story about him holidaying in the Maldives broke just as the confidence vote in the prime minister was called, ensuring attention was elsewhere. The DUP MP may have less luck with timing in a few months when the Parliamentary Standards Commission reports, now he has referred himself to it. Paisley has already survived a record-breaking suspension, unprecedented recall petition and by-election over similar allegations involving holidays to Sri Lanka. His party is unlikely to sack him and even if it did, he would keep his seat. But he is not unsinkable - the Commission can recommend the ultimate penalty of expulsion from the Commons. That sanction has not been used for 60 years but a finding of ignoring all other sanctions could arguably warrant it.
newton@irishnews
