A lot of comparisons have been drawn between Theresa May's vote of confidence and those of Margaret Thatcher and John Major; but it is worth remembering that May never really began her prime ministerial career from a position of relative strength.
Thatcher had three victories and stonking majorities to her credit before she began to 'lose it' and started acting more like an empress than a party leader. Major surprised just about everybody in 1992 when he won a general election he was expected to lose (although he was helped by the fact that his Labour opponent was the congenitally dreadful Neil Kinnock).
May, on the other hand, had very little to her credit on Wednesday evening. The 'accidental' prime minister managed to lose a small, yet serviceable majority less than a year after she succeeded Cameron; she triggered Article 50 before agreeing a general policy with her party; her 'Brexit means Brexit' mantra was the sort of catchphrase Bruce Forsyth would have been proud of; Schrodinger's cat - sealed in a box and without anyone having proof of life - would have been a better negotiator with the EU; and she abandoned red-line positions faster than Gypsy Rose Lee abandoning her clothes.
And yet she's still prime minister, having seen off a challenge from the intellectual giants (well, that's certainly the impression they like to give to the gullible, Brexit-purist wing of the party) of the ERG. Rees-Mogg can complain as much as he likes about the 'payroll vote' saving May, yet forgets to mention that almost everyone of the 117 who backed him would have been desperate to get on the payroll had May been toppled. Yes, the anti-May vote was bigger than expected; but viewed against the background of her uselessness it was pretty poor for them.
The reason they haven't been able to land a killer blow on May - and they've had almost 30 months - is that Johnson and Rees-Mogg aren't, when it comes down to it, much more sophisticated that Marvel Comic villains. In other words, they are all slap and no stick. There are probably only a handful of Conservative MPs who have any genuine enthusiasm for the Withdrawal Agreement; so the rest might have been biddable had they seen any evidence from her most vociferous opponents of an alternative to her strategy. But there wasn't any evidence.
I remember a gardening friend telling me years ago: "It doesn't matter how big or small your plot, nor how well ploughed and fenced off. If there isn't colour, food or growth at some point then it's just a piece of well-tended ground." And that's all the ERG had to show for 30 months work. Indeed, it's all they had to show for decades of hatred for the EEC/EC/EU project. That's why she survived. And that's why, had their plot been successful and Boris had taken over, they would still be in a huge mess. It was all plot and no preparation.
When I was a boy there was a song I particularly liked: 'Three wheels on my wagon and I'm still rolling along; the Cherokees are chasing me, arrows fly, right on by, but I'm singing a happy song. I'm singing higgity, haggity, hoggety high, pioneers they never say die.' That song should be May's theme tune. Nothing seems to faze her. She's always convinced that there's a hidden cave around the next corner, where she can 'watch those Cherokees go galloping by.' That, indeed, has been her strategy all along; and, to be honest, it's about as stupid as the ERG strategy.
Where we'll be in a few weeks time - she has another deadline on January 21 - is anyone's guess. But no doubt she'll come up with a bizarre wheeze which will be ripped apart by everyone else. At moments like this it's always good for the opposition to have someone capable of stepping up to the plate and presenting themselves as an attractive alternative. Thatcher was that figure during Labour's 'winter of discontent' in 1979. Blair was there in 1997 as the Conservatives imploded. Today we have Jeremy Corbyn. Which is a bit like telling a seriously ill, yet saveable patient, that the ambulance is being driven by Burke while Hare takes control of the defibrillator.
I'm increasingly of the view - although whisper it for now, because I'm still working my way through the problem - that we may need a second referendum. A general election will solve nothing if both main parties are divided between Remain and Leave; and anyway, there seems little chance of a strong, united government being returned. Parliament has singularly and spectacularly failed to 'implement the will of the people' by agreeing a coherent Leave. Leaving without a deal seems to have its supporters, but looking at the mess which has been made since the referendum, I'm sceptical about the ability of parliament to cope in a potential freefall situation.
Oh dear, is that the Cherokees I hear in the background? Start singing: there must be a cave somewhere.
