Opinion

Allison Morris: Time to have realistic conversations about a New Ireland

Arlene Foster with Sinn Féin deputy Michelle O'Neill at the GAA Ulster final
Arlene Foster with Sinn Féin deputy Michelle O'Neill at the GAA Ulster final Arlene Foster with Sinn Féin deputy Michelle O'Neill at the GAA Ulster final

Earlier this week I took part in a panel event organised by the Slugger O'Toole website discussing a 'New Ireland' - is it possible, what will it look like, how will nationalists, unionists and others live together ?

The debate around the possibility of a border poll has gathered pace of late, not just because of Brexit but also the changing demographics of Northern Ireland.

It was a debate that was always going to happen eventually, since the partition of the island almost 100 years ago even those who drew it up knew it wouldn't last forever.

The border that separates us - now much discussed because of Brexit - was meticulously drawn to keep the union intact for as long as possible. But we are approaching a time when anything is possible.

The question now being asked though is how long can the union be maintained, will a border poll be called in five or ten years, will it happen in our lifetime or that of our children or grandchildren?

There are those on both sides of the debate who have and always will vote with their heart.

Those who would have happily reunited the island even when the Republic was financially on its knees.

Those who would remain in the union with Britain even if Brexit is the economic disaster many have predicted.

For on those two sides there are those who would vote solely on identity, the flag meaning more than money, a nation once again and rule Britannia.

But they are not the people who will decide our future. The balance of power currently lies with those more interested in economics, health, education and practicalities.

The millennials who demand more, and rightly so, who want a socially liberal country filled with opportunity and not a place you leave at 21 never to return.

And while we are a long way off answering those questions, we can see political moves in preparation for when the time comes.

When former DUP leader Peter Robinson spoke of the need for more than 50 plus one in any border poll, he knew he was starting a debate that unionism has tried to avoid.

Of course unionist votes can never again count for more than nationalists and just as when 51.9 per cent of people voting to leave the EU was enough, so the same result would have to be binding in any border poll.

But while it would democratically be enough would it really be enough to create a happy, safe and united, new Ireland?

Leo Varadkar's recent visit to Belfast, when he met the Orange Order and the widow of the late Ian Paisley, was part of the outreach aimed at reassuring unionists of their place.

Mary Lou McDonald said this week she would also like to meet the order which would be an important act of outreach.

June was a month of outreach with Arlene Foster on what reality show contestants might call 'a journey'.

Her visit to the Islamic community to celebrate the end of Ramadan, her historic visit to the Ulster GAA final, albeit her home county was not victorious on that occasion, and tonight's visit to the PinkNews event at Stormont.

Gesture politics, of course, but gestures help heal, they help open doors and encourage people to make at times uncomfortable but ultimately positive steps forward.

Whether the DUP leader is trying to soften her image, restart the talks process, deflect from RHI or is genuinely being the kind of leader she always wanted to be, her recent outreach has been welcomed in the main, as it should be.

To make Northern Ireland work, to make it a more palatable place for nationalists and others, those who have come here and made this little place their home, to reach out to the LGBT community, could in reality maintain the union for longer.

But it won't change the fact that for nationalists this is a journey, and one that they see ending when the country is one.

For unionism, while that does require a degree of internal debate, maybe that's the kind of conversation some sections of the community are not yet ready for.

If it's any reassurance we are still a long way off knowing what this new Ireland would look like and until there's a road map in place for that, all we have for now are gestures and speculation.