Opinion

Allison Morris: DUP may gain a few conservative Catholic votes but they will lose out more among younger unionists

DUP leader Arlene Foster claimed that she had "had emails from nationalists and republicans" which said they would be voting DUP because of the abortion issue. Picture from Sky News
DUP leader Arlene Foster claimed that she had "had emails from nationalists and republicans" which said they would be voting DUP because of the abortion issue. Picture from Sky News DUP leader Arlene Foster claimed that she had "had emails from nationalists and republicans" which said they would be voting DUP because of the abortion issue. Picture from Sky News

Later today the Supreme Court will deliver a ruling on whether Northern Ireland's abortion laws constitute a violation of the UK's human rights obligations.

In a week where reproductive rights, or lack of them, for women in Northern Ireland have been to the forefront of the political agenda, the ruling could bring some much-needed clarity to the situation.

Grainne Teggart of Amnesty International has said Supreme Court judges "have a unique chance to put right centuries of human rights abuse in Northern Ireland".

But in reality, without functioning devolution, will the ruling actually change anything? Northern Ireland's current abortion laws date back to 1861, while the issue has been devolved here since the formation of the state.

As archaic and punitive as these laws are it's worth noting that they didn't and don't stop abortion happening in Northern Ireland.

Just as the Republic's eighth amendment didn't prevent abortion, it simply exports the problem or drives it underground.

In the past that would have included back street abortions, women and girls risking their lives in unregulated procedures, more often now it means abortion pills ordered online and taken in secret.

Labour MP Stella Creasey has been an outspoken supporter of those seeking change. Having first secured a commitment to means tested healthcare for women travelling from Northern Ireland to Britain, earlier this week she proposed an emergency Westminster debate to remove any criminal sanction for abortion.

Her proposal would remove section 58 and 59 from the Offences Against the Person Act, which would take the criminal element out of the abortion debate.

It does not mean women here will have new, modern, legislation.

That would require a devolved executive and legislative assembly to be functioning.

There's no talks nor even any talk about talks so let's assume that's not going to happen any time soon.

Then it would need the approval of the majority of MLAs, and then, as if all that isn't enough, the DUP would have to be trusted not to cobble together a few friends and use a petition of concern to block any legislative change.

Given the language used by Sammy Wilson this week during the emergency Westminster debate, language I refuse to repeat, it all sounds a bit hopeless doesn't it?

If we are to take recent comments by Arlene Foster as genuine, there are Catholics and apparently former Sinn Féin voters queuing up to vote for her party solely on social issues.

While many mocked Mrs Foster's claims as so outrageous they couldn’t possibly be true, the views of some right wing conservative Catholics now have little political space to find spiritual comfort.

The landslide for the Yes campaign in the Republic's referendum shows that even in a country where the majority of people still class themselves as practising Catholics, they see no conflict between their religion and changing legislation they believed to be unjust and lacking compassion.

In Northern Ireland we have remained - in part because of the Troubles - an insular place where modernisation has been slow.

I have no doubt there are people in areas considered republican who agree with every word uttered by Jim Wells, Sammy Wilson, Ian Paisley and colleagues on the issue of abortion.

Some may even change their vote as a result, but I would guess that I wouldn't need both hands to count the numbers.

The DUP, however, should be concerned with the number of votes they stand to lose as a result of their hardline stance on abortion and same sex marriage.

Young unionists, those under the age of 25 who either leave for a life elsewhere or refuse to vote at all, are a demographic the DUP should be courting if they wish to maintain the Union. Instead they are isolating them.

Older people, those who voted Arlene to keep Martin McGuinness out of the office of first minister, no longer have a visible adversary. Mr McGuinness's death and the standing down as leader of Gerry Adams has changed the dynamic of Sinn Féin.

The party now has two female leaders, neither of whom has an IRA past. Mary Lou McDonald is an impressive operator who is saying and doing all the right things needed to woo the undecided and first time voters.

The amount of votes the DUP stand to lose because of their conservative views will not be neutralised by a few Catholics who can change their mind on the constitutional issue because of abortion.

Not to mention the damage the DUP are doing to their own reputation in Britain, where they've never been under so much scrutiny.