Opinion

Newton Emerson: Waves of Brexit confusion washing a sea border ashore

Newton Emerson

Newton Emerson

Newton Emerson writes a twice-weekly column for The Irish News and is a regular commentator on current affairs on radio and television.

The latest Brexit developments point to a sea border, with infrastructure at the Port of Belfast
The latest Brexit developments point to a sea border, with infrastructure at the Port of Belfast The latest Brexit developments point to a sea border, with infrastructure at the Port of Belfast

A sudden rush of developments on Brexit might seem confusing but matters are greatly simplified when you realise it all points to a sea border.

The row between London and Dublin over a customs partnership versus 'maximum facilitation', for instance, is about how much frontier infrastructure will be required.

The row between London and Brussels over a transition period is about how to minimise this infrastructure with technology.

The row between Dublin and the DUP is about unionists realising that whatever infrastructure is required will be in the Port of Belfast, because London has promised it will not be in Newry.

This has long been clear to those most directly affected. Preparations at the Port of Belfast are reassuringly advanced.

There was some nationalist alarm this week when Brexit was blamed for the cancelled sale of a former police station in Warrenpoint. But of course, while this is near Newry, it is really about Warrenpoint Harbour - the other sea border.

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Mystery surrounds a claim by David Sterling, the head of the civil service, that the North West 200 could be jeopardised without a Stormont minister to sign off the necessary road closures.

Sterling was responding to a judicial review against approval of the Hightown incinerator, which found civil servants should not take decisions at this level.

But closing roads for an event can be decided by the police or councils. No minister is required. The council power only came into force last September, as announced by a statement from the Department of Infrastructure - issued by civil servants.

In a further irony, the department's order to commence the power was made just after Stormont's collapse, when ministers were in place but not meant to be taking decisions.

Sterling was on firmer ground noting that infrastructure projects of regional significance will no longer be signed off.

The most obvious examples are the A5 and Casement Park, high up on Sinn Féin's wish list. Was threatening the North West 200 someone's idea of a more cross-community scare story?

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UVF flags have reappeared outside the Cantrell Close mixed housing development in east Belfast. They first appeared last June, followed last September by threats forcing four Catholic families to leave.

This week the flags were removed within hours amid denials the UVF put them up, with loyalist blogger Jamie Bryson alleging a literal false flag operation.

So perhaps it is best to focus on one undeniable fact. It is eight months since the PSNI said an "active investigation" in conjunction with the Paramilitary Crime Task Force had resulted in arrests and would lead to files being sent to the Public Prosecution Service.

Nothing further has been reported.

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Sinn Féin's group in the European Parliament cannot have imagined the bang it would get for its buck when it commissioned a poll on Brexit and a united Ireland last December.

This showed 48 per cent would vote for a united Ireland in a Border poll versus 45 per cent for the union, but only under a complex hypothetical question supplied by Sinn Féin's group.

This unorthodox method generated so much criticism that pollsters LucidTalk warned the results should not be compared to its regular standardised polls, the most recent of which had been two months before, showing 55 per cent would vote for the union versus 38 for a united Ireland.

Yet that is exactly the comparison Prime Minster Theresa May made in cabinet this week, when she warned Brexit hardliners that opinion is shifting.

May referred to this as a "risk", falling short of the Good Friday Agreement test for a Border poll - that nationalist victory "appears likely".

But as that test is essentially a matter of opinion, May's opinion still eases the genie out of the bottle.

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Despite blethering on about being denied a city deal, nobody at Derry and Strabane Council has approached the British government to request one, according to freedom of information requests by former SDLP adviser Emmet Doyle.

It seems the council took a long-standing plan for a cross-border economic development zone, chopped off the bits in Donegal in uncharacteristically partitionist fashion, then waited for London to get in touch, which is not the correct procedure.

A unionist source has told me they would be happy to help but it is difficult to offer constructive criticism without raising Foyleside hackles.

One of the easiest funding pitches for a City Deal would be equipment upgrades at the council-owned City of Derry Airport, but the council has not bothered contacting the airport either. It is almost as if it prefers to sit around complaining.

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DUP MP Emma Little-Pengelly has expressed admiration for the "incredible" new Hong Kong-Macau-Zhuhai bridge and tunnel, a 35-mile £12 billion project nearing completion in China.

Other DUP representatives have concurred, although most have stopped short of explicitly comparing it to the party's desired link across the Irish Sea, which is just as well.

The Chinese link crosses a shallow estuary - a very different proposition to bridging the North Channel. It serves a population of 120 million in industrial and trading mega-cities, as opposed to connecting Donaghadee with Portpatrick. And even before it has opened, a stretch of its seawall has collapsed.

newton@irishnews.com