Opinion

Allison Morris: In terms of the case for a border poll, the DUP are making it easy for republicans

DUP leader Arlene Foster said she would probably' leave in the event of a united Ireland. Picture by Dominic Lipinski/PA Wire
DUP leader Arlene Foster said she would probably' leave in the event of a united Ireland. Picture by Dominic Lipinski/PA Wire DUP leader Arlene Foster said she would probably' leave in the event of a united Ireland. Picture by Dominic Lipinski/PA Wire

When Lady Sylvia Hermon said last week that she believed there would be a border poll in her lifetime it was quite a statement from a lifelong and committed unionist.

As the only pro-remain MP representing Northern Ireland at Westminster the North Down politician has been subjected to some quite vitriolic criticism from her DUP counterparts, driven in part by the party's ambitions to take the seat she has occupied since 2001.

Her seemingly soft unionist politics do not fit with the DUP vision for the future, which has become increasingly hard line.

Peter Robinson spoke about reaching out to nationalists when he held the leadership of the party, his successor Arlene Foster has said something similar but the words of both have not been met with actions.

The work that Martin McGuinness and Ian Paisley started in healing decades of hurt seems a million years away now.

The collapse of Stormont, the growing rift between the two main parties on almost every major issue from Brexit to language to legacy makes the fact devolution lasted as long as it did seem quite extraordinary.

As we approach the centenary of the formation of Northern Ireland, for the first time in its existence the future does indeed look precarious.

Demographics were always going to play a role in calls for a change of sovereignty.

The border, drawn up to ensure a unionist majority, could only hold back a growing nationalist community for so long.

The trend for big Catholic families during the middle part of the last century plays out in census figures which show a young nationalist majority and ageing unionist minority.

However, that alone is not responsible for the increased debate for a border poll. The failure of politics to unite two communities and make Northern Ireland a viable, comfortable and prosperous place is now the main driver.

There are those who will always vote with their hearts one way or another. Regardless of economics there are people on both sides who would prefer to be financially worse off in either a united Ireland or as part of the United Kingdom.

People for whom identity means more than financial security.

But those people will not decide the future of our island.

Instead those who may feel either Irish or British but would be happy to retain their nationality in what we now hear being called 'a new Ireland' will make that call.

People who are untainted by the Troubles or memories of the past and who will decide where they live based on simple lifestyle choices.

Sinn Féin know this and the leaders of the both Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael have in recent years also spoken openly about the prospect of a new Ireland.

Unionists, though, have missed a trick. Rather than make Northern Ireland both financially and socially comfortable within the UK, they instead seem determined to self-sabotage.

Brexit, according to almost every economic study, will be damaging to Northern Ireland.

Any chance of mitigating that economic impact has been dismissed by the DUP, not on financially viable grounds but in case it changes the appearance of the north as part of the UK.

The refusal to modernise socially, despite knowing that young voters regardless of identity do not want to live in a place that appears backward and stuck in some Old Testament dictatorship, is in the long term disastrous for securing what is left of the Union.

When Peter Robinson spoke of reaching out to nationalists he recognised that there needed to be a reach beyond the traditional base if the Union that the DUP hold so dearly is to be saved.

However, the failure to follow this through in policy and attitude is a long-term catastrophe for the Union.

Arlene Foster indicated in an interview with Paddy Kielty for his excellent documentary on the 20th anniversary of the Good Friday Agreement that she would leave Northern Ireland in the eventuality of a united Ireland.

That in itself shows a lack of vision for unionism - for the majority of working class loyalist and unionist voters who supported the DUP in recent elections leaving is not an option.

They don't have land and assets to sell off to start again elsewhere, they are instead relying on strong and reassuring leadership at home.

In terms of the campaign for a border poll and a new Ireland, or a united Europe, the DUP are making the job of republicans easy and Lady Sylvia was right to say events politically made it a likely prospect in her lifetime.

And a hard line not an inch attitude from the DUP is only going to increase the chance of a poll happening sooner rather than later.