Opinion

Newton Emerson: Parties realise they must soon do a deal or face the consequences

Newton Emerson

Newton Emerson

Newton Emerson writes a twice-weekly column for The Irish News and is a regular commentator on current affairs on radio and television.

Newton Emerson
Newton Emerson Newton Emerson

There was never any prospect of a Stormont deal this week, with the Sinn Fein and DUP party conferences still two weeks away. So the sudden flurry of activity ahead of secretary of state James Brokenshire’s latest ‘deadline’ was oversold, while the frustration when it failed was overblown.

Announcing he must now set Stormont’s budget in Westminster next week, Brokenshire quietly moved the deadline to December, noting a deal by then will still let the executive set a budget of its own.

What is significant is that the formerly weekly up and down mood swings around the talks are getting closer together, like contractions. This is being driven by the realisation within both parties that they must soon do a deal and face the consequences. Delivery should still be expected.

**

Former secretary of state Peter Hain has mocked Brokenshire’s flexible deadlines, saying Stormont salaries and expenses should be “withdrawn” to concentrate minds. Hain claimed he did this in 2006, giving MLAs notice “under proper employment law procedures”, which “I know for a fact had a big impact for example on the DUP.” Really? Stormont salaries were cut by 30 per cent in 2003 under Hain’s predecessor Paul Murphy. There they stayed until the 2006 St Andrews talks, when Hain threatened another cut by a November 24 deadline, itself already extended by two weeks.

However, he did nothing as final agreement was dragged out until the following March, whereupon he restored salaries in full and raised the expenses allowance by 45 per cent. It was then widely presumed Hain had concentrated minds by offering Sinn Féin and the DUP more money. The threat he used was water charging - in other words, taking money off everyone else.

**

Brokenshire is most unlikely to introduce water charging in next week’s budget – the effect of such a threat would be wasted by not mentioning it well in advance. A minimal update of last year’s budget, in line with the policies of the last executive, is all that is on the cards. Also absent will be the £1 billion from the DUP-Tory deal, as including it now would signal all hope for devolution is lost. With questions being asked in the UK press about when this money will arrive, DUP MP Jeffrey Donaldson has said it must start flowing by the end of the year, Stormont or no Stormont, or the Westminster deal is off - another reason the real talks deadline is in December.

**

The secretary of state has received the full support of the Irish government in a statement from foreign minister Simon Coveney, who said he recognises Brokenshire is only setting a budget “with the greatest of reluctance and at the latest possible juncture.” Coveney went on to praise the close working relationship between London and Dublin and insist they are on the same page over talks, devolution and the Good Friday Agreement. However, he added this will mean deepening north-south and east-west structures if Stormont fails. It all sounds like a rebuke to Sinn Féin for trying to play both governments off against each other, combined with a promise of Dublin taking a more pro-active role - an interesting mix of good and bad news for republicans.

**

Failure to agree at Stormont produced a furious response from Conradh na Gaeilge, which fears the DUP is holding out for an Irish language act that will not be “stand alone” and “independent of any other legislation”. The ‘stand alone’ versus ‘cultures act’ debate is important to Sinn Féin and the DUP for face-saving reasons. The DUP needs to make retreat look like compromise and Sinn Féin needs to stick to one red line while abandoning all the others. But what does this matter to Conradh na Gaeilge? If legislation achieves the organisation’s specific goals for the Irish language, the inclusion of Ulster-Scots would be no skin off its nose - or anyone’s nose, as the Ulster-Scots language does not exist. Conradh na Gaeilge seems to have been drawn into purely party politics.

**

Stephen Gault, who was injured and lost his father in the Enniskillen bomb, has been trolled on social media for the past eight years by dissident republicans. Gault says when he reported this to police he was told not to pursue it as it might endanger his life. The PSNI has not denied Gault’s claim, which is most unfortunate, as it implies social media cases are only pursued when police believe the culprit is harmless. The PSNI listed 1.1 per cent of all recorded offences last year as non-fraud online crime, double the percentage two years ago.

**

A new documentary on the 1994 Loughinisland massacre, entitled No Stone Unturned, takes the unusual step of naming those it believes responsible. This prejudices any prospect of a trial - but as the documentary discovers, that prospect has always been negligible.

Publicly naming Troubles suspects points to a new approach to justice, where instead of hoping they are taken to court, you dare them to take you to court.

As a truth recovery process it is far from perfect - yet it increasingly looks like they only one we will get.

newton@irishnews.com