Opinion

Brian Feeney: Colum Eastwood in desperate bid to save SDLP seats

Brian Feeney

Brian Feeney

Historian and political commentator Brian Feeney has been a columnist with The Irish News for three decades. He is a former SDLP councillor in Belfast and co-author of the award-winning book Lost Lives

Colum Eastwood has proposed non-aligned candidates in the pro-Remain constituencies. Picture by Hugh Russell
Colum Eastwood has proposed non-aligned candidates in the pro-Remain constituencies. Picture by Hugh Russell Colum Eastwood has proposed non-aligned candidates in the pro-Remain constituencies. Picture by Hugh Russell

Let’s look at this is in practical terms as opposed to the airy-fairy stuff about a pro-Brexit or anti-Brexit vote.

Colum Eastwood has had a sudden rush of blood to the head or maybe he hit his head on something or most likely he’s just no good at dissembling. Let’s examine what might happen if he got what he wanted and admittedly it’s not clear what he wants, but let’s have a look.

Suppose for the sake of argument the Greens and other anti-Brexit odds and sods stepped aside presumably to give either the SDLP or Sinn Féin a free run, what difference would it make? How many unionist seats would change hands? How many extra anti-Brexit votes would there be? The answer to both questions is none.

The only good outcome of Eastwood’s confused ill-considered foray is that the Alliance Party has been confirmed as what everyone knows it to be, a liberal unionist party. Alliance now adopts the impeccable unionist position of saying the Euro referendum was a UK referendum so the north should leave with the rest of the UK. Try telling that to the Scots.

Why Eastwood thinks a party supporting Brexit (while arguing pointlessly that they can influence Theresa May for a different softer Brexit) would be interested in joining an anti-Brexit pact is a mystery only Colum Eastwood can unravel. Anyway the role of Alliance is academic because they’re not interested in pacts.

The only parties which could possibly gain from Eastwood’s proposal are needless to say the beleaguered SDLP and ascendant Sinn Féin. The SDLP is in trouble.

Like his three predecessors as leader Eastwood has failed to explain to the public what the SDLP is for. However it does, or did, have a purpose in Westminster elections.

That purpose is in two overwhelmingly nationalist constituencies, Foyle and South Down, to provide unionists with a winning candidate who isn’t Sinn Féin.

Now that function may also be over. In South Down in the 2015 Westminster election the SDLP vote was down 6 per cent. In the assembly election last month it fell again so that now the SDLP are 6,650 votes behind Sinn Féin in South Down. Add the unionists who usually vote SDLP for Westminster and they’re no longer enough.

The only safe SDLP seat is now Foyle although in March’s assembly elections Sinn Féin outvoted the SDLP. It won’t happen for Westminster because of unionists switching to Mark Durkan rather than give a wasted vote to a unionist candidate.

So what it boils down to is that Eastwood is looking for what he calls a pro-Brexit pact to save the SDLP seats in South Down and South Belfast where Alasdair McDonnell’s position is dire.

His vote collapsed in 2015: down 16.5 per cent. You can be sure unionists will produce an agreed candidate despite the current war of words between Arlene Foster and Robin Swann. What’s in it for the Greens to pull out? Nothing. It would make no difference. Few if any Green voters would consider McDonnell anyway.

Does Eastwood want to do the unmentionable but call it a pro-Brexit vote, that is give Sinn Féin a free run in Fermanagh/South Tyrone in return for a free run in South Down?

Ian Knox cartoon 21/4/17: Margaret Ritchie announces that the SDLP will not be making election pacts.  Colum Eastwood proposes an anti-Brexit election pact 
Ian Knox cartoon 21/4/17: Margaret Ritchie announces that the SDLP will not be making election pacts. Colum Eastwood proposes an anti-Brexit election pact  Ian Knox cartoon 21/4/17: Margaret Ritchie announces that the SDLP will not be making election pacts. Colum Eastwood proposes an anti-Brexit election pact 

There’s no chance of Sinn Féin pulling out in South Belfast after Ó Muilleoir topped the poll this March unless the SDLP withdraws in Fermanagh.

You see there might be another assembly election and people would be asking Ó Muilleoir where he was. Besides, there’s no guarantee McDonnell could beat an agreed unionist candidate.

Finally, leaving aside the uncertainty about pacts ousting a unionist how many extra anti-Brexit votes would there be? Surely the answer is none because if the Greens stood everywhere (and their total vote in 2015 was 6,822 or one per cent) those would still be anti-Brexit votes as would those of even tinier parties who oppose Brexit. So what? We all know that.

You’re left with the conclusion that what Eastwood really wants is a deal to guarantee South Down for the SDLP and a desperate but doomed attempt to save South Belfast. There’s only one way to do that but he hasn’t the nerve to come out and say it openly.