Opinion

Alex Kane: Sinn Féin in danger of overplaying its hand

Alex Kane

Alex Kane

Alex Kane is an Irish News columnist and political commentator and a former director of communications for the Ulster Unionist Party.

Sinn Fein northern leader Michelle O'Neill pictured with party members at Stormont Castle. Picture by Arthur Allison/Pacemaker Press
Sinn Fein northern leader Michelle O'Neill pictured with party members at Stormont Castle. Picture by Arthur Allison/Pacemaker Press Sinn Fein northern leader Michelle O'Neill pictured with party members at Stormont Castle. Picture by Arthur Allison/Pacemaker Press

I’m shocked. Shocked, I tell you. The DUP and Sinn Féin increased their mandates on the back of mutually contradictory agendas and the rest of us are feigning surprise and frustration at their seeming difficulties in cutting a deal any time soon.

It might be easier if they just cut to the chase and set up a two-government state, divvy up the block grant between them and serve the interests of their separate communities.

Sinn Féin has no difficulty with Arlene Foster leading the DUP’s negotiating team; yet even if they did manage to come up with something between them it would fall at the first hurdle because Sinn Féin will refuse to nominate Foster as first minister. And since the DUP knows this, then I’m pretty sure they won’t fall over themselves to cut anything of significance.

Sinn Féin is also in real danger of overplaying its hand. Foster is damaged goods. But she will gather support, consolidate her position in the DUP and reach out—probably successfully—to other unionists if Adams and O’Neill insist on her standing aside for an unspecified period. Foster may have taken a hit, but the fact remains that, in the most extraordinarily difficult of circumstances, the DUP is still ahead of Sinn Féin. It is still the lead party. It is still—by a considerable margin—the majority voice of unionism (225,413 to 133,409). The TUV/PUP/UKIP/Cons all went down. The UUP crashed (taking some of its biggest hitters) and Nesbitt fell on his sword.

Yes, unionism may have lost its overall majority in the assembly and that will have embarrassed her; but it’s a huge mistake for Sinn Féin to imagine that a good day for it last Thursday would translate into a good day if a border poll were called. And while Brexit may vex some unionists and some constitutional agnostics, it would be wrong—very wrong, in my opinion—to assume that their vexation would trump their desire to remain within the United Kingdom.

It’s also worth bearing in mind that the DUP—while shocked last Friday evening—may be coming round to the idea that a second snap election could repair the damage. It’s amazing how quickly an electoral pact could be reached if the circumstances demanded it: and the prospect of an early general election is already focusing their collective minds. True, Sinn Féin had a good day last Thursday; but there’s no guarantee that it would have another good day three months down the line.

Both Foster and O’Neill have two key considerations: are they ready to run the risks—and there are risks for both of them—of a second election; and are they ready for the consequences of what could become a long period of direct rule. I don’t know the answer to those questions. But I do know that one of them comes into play if they don’t cut the deal fairly soon.

Meanwhile, what about the poor old UUP? I wasn’t predicting a breakthrough for them (although some of their number crunchers were talking up 15-18 seats), but nor did I think they would plunge to 10 and lose their leader before the counting had stopped. The problem is that the nine possibilities to replace Nesbitt are lacking in obvious leadership skills. Roy Beggs—first elected in 1998—has never been high profile and never even held significant office within the party. Robin Swann, Nesbitt’s chief whip, has been close to the leadership; maybe too close to offer a genuine alternative.

The other seven were only elected either last May, or last Thursday and haven’t had the chance to develop a profile, let alone a base, within the party. Doug Beattie is being talked up in some circles, but I would be genuinely surprised if he goes for it. Steve Aiken is highly rated, but had a car crash interview with Stephen Nolan during the election and insisted, with a straight face, that the UUP would be the largest party. He’s also close to Nesbitt. Robbie Butler is young and articulate—but he, too, has yet to find his feet.

Whoever gets it has a huge task ahead; primary of which is how he handles the offer from the DUP (which may have the support of senior ‘traditionalists’ within the party) about closer cooperation, election deals and transfer pacts. Whichever way he goes will cost the party votes and members. The other key decision is whether or not the party—again on the back of overtures from the DUP—will return to the executive. They didn’t get enough time to settle in opposition or make the long term case for change, and some of the party executive will not be keen to make that mistake again.

There are only so many hits and reinventions that the UUP can cope with. Now—more weakened and demoralised than I have ever known it—may be the time it finally has to face the fact that the glory days have gone.