Parse Peter Robinson’s statement on Monday and one conclusion is certain. He does not want to leave the executive and bring down the assembly if he can avoid it.
One key sentence says: ``Let's be clear, if other unionists were to follow [Nesbitt’s] so-called “principled” move, the fall of Stormont is exactly what would happen and terror would triumph.'' The second consequence is that Nesbitt’s hasty opportunism is going to rebound on him like a brick on a rubber band.
Nesbitt’s ill-thought out reaction to the chief constable’s press conference has produced a surprising degree of agreement between the DUP and Sinn Féin, surely the last result he expected.
Robinson agrees with Gerry Kelly that Nesbitt acted out of ‘political expediency’. Robinson agrees with Mary Lou McDonald that Nesbitt was ‘irresponsible’ as indeed he was. It was he, not Sinn Féin or the IRA who threw the power-sharing arrangements into turmoil. It was he who brought the two governments galloping to the rescue producing more action from our proconsul than there’s been in all the time she has twiddled her thumbs at the NIO.
It’s not the first time Nesbitt has somersaulted or more accurately, stood on his head having failed to complete the circle. If you remember, he won the leadership of the UUP after two years in the party on the basis that going into opposition was a mistake. In almost every decision he has taken his political inexperience shines through. In this present instance the only stammering support for his withdrawal from the executive has come from Danny Kinahan and Lord Empey. None of the assembly members seem delighted or excited.
His back flip was horribly badly timed. The assembly isn’t sitting so he gifted Dublin and London and Robinson this week to devise a response. Meeting Cameron yesterday allows Robinson to appear as the statesman on the high ground, cool and decisive: a man with a plan as opposed to Nesbitt, a man with a ploy.
On Friday both Charlie Flanagan and our proconsul, senior officials from London and Dublin and Irish and British politicians meet in Cambridge for the annual British-Irish Association bash. By the time the assembly meets next week Nesbitt will be in pitiable isolation. Only Jeremiah Allister will support him.
Robinson’s statement on Monday is the critical public negotiating document. In it he has already laid out his basic requirement, something Nesbitt forgot to present. Robinson says the principle is if you’re in the executive you can’t be involved with those engaged in paramilitary or criminal activity.
He doesn’t accuse Sinn Féin of that but wants to ensure it doesn’t happen. Here’s the crucial sentence. ``Mechanisms need to be in place, not alone to punish, but to discourage such behaviour in the future and remove it from our society.'' You can see what he’s after, a change to the rules dealing with exclusion. You can feel all-party negotiations coming on after a lot of noisy acrimonious language next week, can’t you?
Robinson’s plan is to lob the ball into Sinn Féin’s court. They’ll have to make concessions because while Robinson doesn’t want to leave the executive Sinn Féin equally don’t want the edifice to crumble. So they can’t make it difficult for Robinson to hang in given that most of his MPs oppose power-sharing and his assembly members know Robinson doesn’t want an election soon because he doesn’t intend to stand again.
Ending his political career after losing his Westminster seat and with the executive and assembly a shambles would too obviously fulfil the famous Enoch Powell dictum that all political careers end in failure.
Watch next week as Robinson, justifiably furious with Nesbitt, produces with the help to the two governments (and Sinn Féin) a coherent plan to save devolution, earn the praise of the media, and demonstrate conclusively that the UUP leader is a political novice.
No doubt in the process Robinson will point out that the real reason Nesbitt got out of the executive is because the poor performance of his party’s single minister would be cruelly exposed in the coming winter with ungritted roads and cavernous potholes and that’s not a great platform for next year’s election.