Politics

Dr Sean Haughey – We need to talk about restoring and reforming devolution

The Northern Ireland Assembly will mark its 25th anniversary in December 2024
The Northern Ireland Assembly will mark its 25th anniversary in December 2024 The Northern Ireland Assembly will mark its 25th anniversary in December 2024

THE Northern Ireland Assembly has had some pretty terrible birthdays. Although the Good Friday Agreement (GFA) was signed in April of 1998, legislative powers were not devolved to the assembly until December 1999. Unlike the GFA, therefore, the assembly won’t be celebrating its 25th birthday next month. That occasion is still a little while off, occurring in December 2024.

Previous milestones have not been celebratory affairs. The months running up to the assembly’s sweet 16th, in December 2015, were marked by ministerial resignations and a drawn-out talks process, eventually culminating in (a so-called) ‘Fresh Start’. When the assembly turned 18, in December 2017, there was scant evidence it had reached adulthood – it had collapsed the previous January amid the RHI scandal and had yet to return. Although there was, at least, a sitting assembly when it turned 21 in December 2020, the Covid-19 pandemic and strict social distancing regulations ruled out any prospect of a party.

Read More

  • Opinion poll: Stormont's 'big three' consolidate dominance of the assembly
  • Analysis: Big party support holds up but voters want action from restored executive
  • Cost of living and NHS reform identified as major priorities for restored Stormont
  • Majority support for Good Friday Agreement structures among voters
  • Dr David McCann – The three-party state is here to stay

The circumstances of the assembly’s next milestone, when it marks a quarter of a century in December 2024, do not bode well for merriment. That is when the first consent vote on the Northern Ireland Protocol is scheduled to take place. With or without birthday candles, sparks are likely to fly. Whether the Assembly will exist at all then, though, remains to be seen. At present, the devolved institutions are on hiatus and show no immediate sign of return.

But return they should – that is the view of the Northern Ireland public as expressed in The Irish News-Institute of Irish Studies-University of Liverpool survey. Polling company SMR asked a representative sample of 1,000 people what the solution is to the current paralysis in the devolved institutions. Direct rule is a non-runner: 13 per cent support direct rule, and a further 5 per cent support direct rule with some input from Dublin. Similarly, there is little appetite (17 per cent) for fresh elections. The majority perspective (51 per cent) is that the parties should re-enter Stormont immediately, with a further 14 per cent of the view that the parties should wait until the impact(s) of the Windsor Framework become clear.

If and when the assembly does return, there is some public support for institutional reform. Asked about the suitability of the GFA structures, the most popular response among respondents (37 per cent) was that they remain the ‘best basis’ for governing Northern Ireland but ‘require some changes in order to work better’. A further 23 per cent believe the GFA structures provide the best basis for governing Northern Ireland as they are. With some qualification, then, 60 per cent of the population remain positively disposed towards the GFA structures. Given their chequered history, that is quite something.

Opposition to the GFA structures is most apparent among unionist voters, 27 per cent of whom think they are no longer (or have never been) a good basis for governing Northern Ireland. Over 50 per cent of TUV voters take this view. That party stands alone, however, in terms of the majority preference of its voters. The majority view of DUP voters (54 per cent) is that, either in their current or a modified form, the GFA structures remain the best basis for governing Northern Ireland. In that regard, the DUP view is fairly representative of the unionist view overall: 57 per cent of unionists regard the GFA structures as the best basis for governing Northern Ireland in their current form or with ‘some changes’. 69 per cent of nationalists and 58 per cent of the Others (neither nationalist nor unionist) agree.

Give or take some modifications, then, the GFA structures retain cross-community appeal. But what should be modified? A mini-citizens assembly directed by this author and Dr Jamie Pow (QUB) tried to get to grips with this question last year. Broadly speaking, our participants – nationalist, unionist and other – supported getting rid of the veto which places in the hands of one party the ability to collapse the executive and/or to prevent its formation. According to the respected historian Lord Paul Bew, who provided evidence on the GFA structures to the Northern Ireland Affairs Select Committee last month, the veto will be going nowhere because the DUP and Sinn Féin won’t give it up. That settles it, then.

This author appeared before the same committee and offered a more optimistic viewpoint. The social scientific evidence suggests there is public appetite for a conversation about institutional reform. In the absence of a sitting Assembly, a revived Civic Advisory Panel – promised but not delivered by the New Decade, New Approach agreement – could lead the way in this regard. Citizens’ assemblies – also promised but not delivered by New Decade, New Approach – could equally play an important role.

The alternative, to ignore the question of institutional reform, would be to place permanently out of reach the prospect of long-term, stable devolved government in Northern Ireland. An informed, inclusive, public conversation about institutional reform? Sounds like the perfect birthday present.

:: Dr Sean Haughey is a lecturer at the University of Liverpool Institute of Irish Studies.