Politics

Analysis: Support for the big parties holds up but voters want action from a restored executive

POLITICIANS are often dismissive of opinion polls, arguing that it's only results at the ballot box that matter. Nevertheless, party workers will pore over every table of today's survey, garnering information that they hope will help them fight forthcoming elections. The data revealed today has little relevance to the remit of local government, yet it is likely to be the issues covered – health service, cost of living, Windsor Framework, etc – that will ultimately influence how people vote in May's council elections.

The results of the opinion poll on voter preferences show no major shifts in people's choices. The survey will make happy reading for the leaders of Stormont's top three parties who have all seen their support increase. While UUP leader Doug Beattie is unlikely to lose any sleep on the basis of today's data, it will make grim reading for his SDLP counterpart Colum Eastwood, who this weekend will attempt to rally his party at its annual conference in Derry. One of the more effective public performers, the Foyle MP must wonder what he can do to address his party's downward electoral trajectory.

Read More

  • Opinion poll: Stormont's 'big three' consolidate dominance of the assembly
  • Cost of living and NHS reform identified as major priorities for restored Stormont
  • Majority support for Good Friday Agreement structures among voters
  • Dr Sean Haughey – We need to talk about restoring and reforming devolution
  • Dr David McCann – The three-party state is here to stay

Arguably, it'll be Sir Jeffrey Donaldson who gets most cheer from the data, having seen his party increase its vote share by 2.6 percentage points. Today's results contrast markedly with those from a separate poll two years ago which showed the DUP in free fall and ultimately led to Arlene Foster's demise.

However, glancing at what the public believes a restored Stormont's priorities should be will make the DUP leader feel less comfortable. According to today's data, the north's constitutional status and the Windsor Framework don't really register as issues that an executive should be addressing. The cost of living crisis and reform of the NHS are by far more important to the public. If we cast our minds back to 2019, when the institutions had been down for three years, voters registered their frustration in significant numbers, leading to a drop in support for both the DUP and Sinn Féin – proof perhaps that politicians can overplay their hand.

The third component of today's survey looks at support for the Good Friday Agreement 25 years on. Overall, the accord emerges from the survey with its credibility largely in tact. However, it is clear there is a growing appetite for reform and measures that will bring stability to the regional administration. Voters have different party political preferences but it's clear they want effective and sustainable government.