Northern Ireland

Bookmakers back Irish border poll before 2030

Leo Varadkar had said he expects to see Irish unification within his lifetime. Picture by Liam McBurney/PA
Leo Varadkar had said he expects to see Irish unification within his lifetime. Picture by Liam McBurney/PA

A referendum on Irish unity before 2030 is now an odds-on shot, according to bookmakers.

It comes, says BoyleSports, after Leo Varadkar’s comments that he believes Ireland is “on the path to unification".

The bookmakers said on Tuesday that the Taoiseach's comments "have clearly raised a few eyebrows" and prompted bets on a referendum on Irish unity before the end of the decade.

Speaking to RTÉ last week, Mr Varadkar also said he believes that "there will be a united Ireland in my lifetime".

But his remarks sparked criticism among the unionist community in Northern Ireland.

Secretary of State Chris Heaton-Harris also appeared to describe the comments, as well as a suggestion to consider a Plan B for the restoration of powersharing, as “unhelpful”.

It also comes just days after SDLP leader Colum Eastwood said he believed there should be a border poll in seven years' time.

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He also said he would support a referendum on Irish unity in 2030 if the conditions are right – the first time he has specified a timeframe for the vote.

The odds on a border poll being held before 2030 were clipped in May after Sinn Féin became the largest party in local government in the north for the first time.

However, bookmakers say the prospect is "now an even hotter one" following Mr Varadkar’s claims with BoyleSports making it a 5/6 shot from 6/4 this week. 

A vote for constitutional change however remains an outside shot to pass before the decade is out at 9/2, with red-hot odds of 1/8 suggesting the status quo will be upheld even if a referendum went ahead.

Lawrence Lyons, spokesperson for BoyleSports said: “Leo Varadkar’s comments this week have clearly raised a few eyebrows and while the result would be up in the air, a growing number believe the path is being paved for a referendum".